Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts

Thursday, November 22, 2012

The Age Old Key to Success: Feed the Ball Down Low




The Lakers lost to the Sacramento Kings last night despite a huge 38 points from Kobe Bryant and it seems all the same problems that got Mike Brown fired still exist with the D’Antoni led Lakers: Turnovers still plague the Lakers as they gave the Kings 20 extra possessions last night. That’s fairly normal for the Lakers, who have averaged 16.67 turnovers every single night; this wouldn’t be such a huge problem since the team, dating back to the Phil Jackson era, has never been known to hold on to the ball all that well, but those teams made up for all of the turnovers with excellent transition defense and above average half court defense. This team has not played any transition defense throughout the year despite having one of the quickest and fastest shot blockers this side of Hakeem Olajuwon and having some young and fresh legs at the point guard and shooting guard spots in Darius Morris and Jodie Meeks.

I fully expect the turnovers to go down a notch once Steve Nash and Steve Blake make their back to the court (reports have said that they are at least two more games from coming back), and now that D’Antoni is the coach, Nash should be playing up to his standards upon his return. But that won’t make a difference if Los Angeles doesn’t feed off of its two dominant forces in Bryant and Dwight Howard.

So far, the Lakers have had Bryant at his absolute best as he has been scoring with efficiency (27.3 points per game on 53.1% shooting) and has been playing the role of Playmaker with Nash still sidelined (5.2 assists per game), however, last night saw a disturbing trend with the team as they seemingly refused to give Howard touches in the post. For the first time all season, the opposing team outscored the Lakers in the paint and it wasn’t even close: the Kings had an enormous 50-22 point lead in that aspect and considering the players Los Angeles has down low, this number is completely unacceptable. It’s common knowledge that D’Antoni dislikes using true post players, but Howard is the NBA’s most dominant force down low since former Laker Shaquille O’Neal; in a league that’s notorious now-a-days for the lack of true centers and size down low, the team has to go with the league’s most dominant player on the low block. Last night, Howard only took 4 shots making two of them. His four free throws came thanks to the Hack-a-Dwight strategy in the fourth quarter (Howard sank 3-4 from the line last night). This is the one major problem I had with the D’Antoni signing: He doesn’t use post players in his system and, until Nash comes back, it seems Howard’s role with the team will diminish unless Bryant and the rest of the perimeter players actively seek Howard in the post. This could be similar to the Bryant-O’Neal Lakers if D’Antoni allows it; so far, it’s looking less likely for that to happen as it seems like D’Antoni wants Howard in more of an Amare Stoudemire role, setting screens and getting open shots because of Nash (in this case, Bryant) but never really getting any touches as a post player. This is the absolute worst strategy to apply with this team because: Howard is the best player in the post in the Western Conference; notice how he is never left one-on-one because nobody can handle him. If teams let him play one-on-one, he would likely have one of the best scoring performances of all time since he still shoots an extremely efficient 61% from the floor. This coupled with the fact that he does not have any of Stoudemire’s game within his repertoire, should make D’Antoni changing up his system inevitable however; he has yet to do so. I said it before: the team doesn’t have the right personnel for Mike D’Antoni to be the coach for this team. The amount of veterans and post players doesn’t make this system ideal for this team, but we won’t know how good or bad it is until Steve Nash comes back from his leg fracture.

Something is definitely wrong with the offensive system if Meeks, Morris, Metta World Peace and Pau Gasol all have more shot attempts than Howard. On the season, while Howard has a ridiculous amount of free throws (130 attempts in 12 games, making only 64 of them for a very bad 49%), he has 23 less shot attempts than Gasol (135-158) while sinking 15 more shots (83-68). So far, Gasol has been playing well below average on offense and has been taking shots well outside of his range. At this pace, Mitch Kupchak might shake the roster up before the trade deadline and pick up a few more three point shooters that can play small forward. The most popular rumor around being the reported Gasol for Josh Smith deal, though I personally think it’s highly unlikely, but if it opens up more touches for Howard, I’m all for it.

In some unrelated and personal positive news: So far, I have successfully predicted what Antawn Jamison and Kobe Bryant would play like so far in this season, give or take a few shooting percentage numbers. I’m extremely pleased with the Bryant prediction as he has been out playing even my high expectations for him; so far, his WS/48 is an insane .276, higher than LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kevin Durant. He already has half of last season's OWS in 12 games! He is currently leading the league in OWS with 2.1. Kobe Bryant truly seems to be immortal. 

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Steve Blake Has Stepped Up in Steve Nash's Absence



I’m sure everyone knew Steve Blake was going to be an important role player off of the bench for Los Angeles; what with Steve Nash never having played more than 32 minutes a game in his career. And with Nash out for what looks like a week (although other reports have said a month), Blake was going to be instrumental in L.A’s plans to start off well this season. Blake has been underwhelming in his first two seasons with the team compared to how well he was doing with in his stint with Portland.

With Mike Brown and assistant Eddie Jordan implementing the Princeton Offense this summer, it looked like Blake was going to have to work hard, or risk losing his job to Darius Morris or Chris Duhon. So far, Blake has not disappointed. In just 4 games this season, Blake has managed to equal his Offensive Win Share from last season, recording a good 0.2 to start the season. He had 0.2 OWS in 53 games last year, which was one of the lowest in the league for players that participated in 50+ games. At this pace, Blake will finish with a tremendous 4 OWS in 82 games. His offensive rating (an estimate of points produced by the team per 100 possessions when the player is on the court) is a sky high 119. His true shooting percentage (a tool used to measure shooting efficiency taking into account 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals and free throws) is a ridiculously high 62.2%.

The Princeton Offense clearly agrees with Blake, as he keeps the offense running smoothly and efficiently around star players Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard. While his PER rating is a below average 12 (mainly because he’s shooting 43.8% in total field goal percentage), it’s still much higher than the past two seasons in Los Angeles, which were 7.5 and 8.5 respectively. Blake has been everything the Lakers have needed at the point guard position, more so than All-Star Steve Nash has been so far this year, as he really seems to be working hard to keep his job. It is a very small sample size, but he has been one of the only players off the bench to actually do his job. If Blake can continue this pace this season, the Lakers have a chance to go far into the playoffs. 


Friday, November 2, 2012

Steve Nash's Injury Could be a Disaster for the Lakers

Steve Nash injured his left leg during the 2nd quarter of Wednesdays game vs. the Blazers

Steve Nash will be a game time decision for the Los Angeles derby on Friday night as the Clippers “visit” the Lakers for the first game between the two LA teams of the season. The way he came off the court, it's likely to be doubtful for him to play. What does this mean for the Lakers? It means the bench gets even worse as Steve Blake is pushed into the starting lineup, a role in which I’m sure he’ll thrive because of his firm grasp on the Princeton Offense, and his better-than-Steve-Nash’s defense.

Steve Blake hasn’t been phenomenal coming off of the bench, but he’s been exactly what the Lakers have needed this season at the point guard position; he hasn’t been turning the ball over (0.5 per game so far), he’s been leaving his fair share of assists (4.5) and isn’t trying to do too much within the passers paradise known as the Princeton Offense. This hasn’t been as good for a bench that has trouble creating their own shots, and doesn’t seem to understand the Princeton just yet; however this is great for a starting lineup that appears offensively in sync.

What this means is 3rd string point guard Chris Duhon has to learn, and learn quickly; in his short time against the Blazers, he contributed to absolutely nothing offensively, and while normally this wouldn’t be much of a problem in the Princeton Offense, except for the fact that he was holding on to the ball for much longer than needed, and taking away precious seconds from his teammates to go to work against a Blazer’s defense that was on its heels as Los Angeles was closing in on them 76-73 at the time; it resulted in bad shots taken (and missed) and easy rebounds for the Blazers; most of their points from the 13-0 run to end the 3rd quarter were off of fast break points coming off of long rebounds from bad Laker shots.

But Duhon is only part of the problem; the whole Lakers bench has been horrid offensively and defensively as they haven’t been giving much rest to star players Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. As I predicted in an earlier article, Antawn Jamison has been completely below average for the Lakers, shooting 33% from the field and is 0 for 3 from three point range. His Win Share per 48 minutes is a below average .095 during these two games. If the Lakers wish to win their first game of the season, and keep bragging rights against their Staples Center roommates, the bench has to wake up.

Steve Nash’s injury is doing more damage to the Lakers’ rotation than just Nash not playing; it’s forcing the bench to step up and fill in some big shoes, something the bench isn’t ready for at this stage of the season.

If there's a positive sign for the Lakers, it's Dwight Howard's dominance Wednesday with 33 points and 14 rebounds. Howard fouled out with 19 points and 10 boards and missed 11 of 14 foul shots in Tuesday's 99-91 home loss to Dallas.

The Lakers, though, struggled defensively against the Blazers, who placed all their starters in double figures and shot 50.6 percent.

This will be the fourth head-to-head matchup between Howard and Clippers big man Blake Griffin. Howard has averaged 25.7 points and 14.0 rebounds while shooting 66.7 percent in those meetings, and Griffin has averaged 18.3 points and 12.7 boards while making 45.7 percent of his field-goal attempts.

Starting Lineups: 
Position
Clippers
Lakers
Point Guard
Chris Paul
Steve Blake
Shooting Guard
Jamal Crawford
Kobe Bryant
Small Forward
Caron Butler
Metta World Peace
Power Forward
Blake Griffin
Pau Gasol
Center
DeAndre Jordan
Dwight Howard




Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The NBA is Back!


The NBA is officially back tonight with three games on tap for the season openers.

Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
First, we go to Cleveland where the Wizards look to start the season off the right the way. There is a (huge) bump in the road, however, for the Wizards. Franchise point guard John Wall will be out of tonight’s contest due to a stress injury to his right knee; he will be out for 4 more weeks. Wizard’s big man NenĂ© also has a minor foot injury and will also miss tonight’s opener.

Washington will use A.J. Price and Jannero Pargo at the point for the opening month after cutting Shelvin Mack on Sunday. Price started six of the team's eight preseason games at the point, averaging 9.6 points.

On the Cavs side of things, new acquisition C.J. Miles, who averaged 11.9 points in the preseason after spending his first seven years in Utah, should see plenty of playing time, as he will start in tonight’s contest.

The Cavs, who ranked 29th in the NBA in field-goal percentage (42.2%) last season, are looking for a step forward from second-year big man Tristan Thompson. The No. 4 pick in 2011 averaged 8.2 points and 6.5 rebounds last season.
Starting lineups:
Position
Wizards
Cavaliers
Point Guard
A.J. Price
Kyrie Irving
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal
C.J. Miles
Small Forward
Trevor Ariza
Alonzo Gee
Power Forward
Trevor Booker
Tristan Thompson
Center
Emeka Okafor
Anderson Varejao



Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat
The attention on this game goes to the Miami Heat. They will hold their championship ceremony tonight to kick off their title defense against the team that took them to seven games during last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.

It's also the first time the Celtics will face Ray Allen as an opponent since he left Boston over the summer and signed with Miami, a decision that his former coach and teammates were most unhappy about.  Miami kept its championship rotation intact, while adding Allen and Rashard Lewis to the mix.

Boston has vastly improved the bench to fill the void left by Allen leaving. They have added former Dallas Maverick Jason Terry and former Houston Rocket Courtney Lee, and will also be getting Jeff Green back after missing all of last season with heart surgery. Boston also drafted Jared Sullinger, a very talented player who dropped during the draft last season due to injury and no improvement from one college season to the other.

Allen knows it will be unusual to see the Heat get their rings, especially since five months ago; he was busy trying to thwart their title march. There appears to be no injuries on this front except for Avery Bradley who had off season surgery on both shoulders.
Starting lineups:
Position
Celtics
Heat
Point Guard
Rajon Rondo
Mario Chalmers
Shooting Guard
Courtney Lee
Dwyane Wade
Small Forward
Paul Pierce
LeBron James
Power Forward
Brandon Bass
Shane Battier
Center
Kevin Garnett
Chris Bosh


Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers
Disappointing playoff outcomes led the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks to retool their rosters in hopes of again rising to the top of the Western Conference.

Each team, though, surrounded its long-standing, yet injured, superstar in different manners.

Kobe Bryant expects to play but Dirk Nowitzki won't as these new-look squads open their seasons Tuesday night in Los Angeles.

The Lakers were bounced in five games in the second round of last season's playoffs by Oklahoma City, the eventual West champion that swept Dallas out of the postseason the previous round.

Los Angeles had what was one of the most productive off seasons this side of The Decision trading for All-Stars Steve Nash and Dwight Howard as well as signing former 6th man of the year Antawn Jamison, and acquiring Jodie Meeks. That’s not to say Dallas didn’t have a good off season; they acquired the services of: Elton Brand, O.J. Mayo, Darren Collison, Dahntay Jones and Chris Kaman

Howard had a back injury, but appears to be back at 100%, playing a few preseason contests to make sure of that. Bryant was a question mark with a bruised and strained right foot until pronouncing himself ready to go after fully participating in Tuesday's shoot around.

On Dallas’ side, Chris Kaman will miss tonight’s contest and is day to day. Forward Brendan Wright is also listed as day to day, however it is unknown if he will participate in tonight’s game. Dirk Nowitzki will miss at least the first 10 games after arthroscopic surgery on his right knee.

Starting lineups:
Position
Mavericks
Lakers
Point Guard
Darren Collison
Steve Nash
Shooting Guard
O.J. Mayo
Kobe Bryant
Small Forward
Shawn Marion
Metta World Peace
Power Forward
Elton Brand
Pau Gasol
Center
Bernard James
Dwight Howard