The Lakers are probably going to be bad and that's okay

It's almost time for the start of the new NBA season and with it, a new era for the Los Angeles Lakers. For the first time in 20 years, the Lakers will field a team that does not include Kobe Bryant.

Bryant had achieved legendary status for the franchise due to his longevity, his almost unreal scoring ability, his five championship seasons and generally being an insane person that won a lot during his time here.

Because of those factors, this is more than just a new season for Los Angeles. It's a whole new beginning with a new system and fresh, young faces anchoring the team. It's certainly much more exciting than the Kobe Bryant Retirement Tour from last season, as the Lakers finally have a future to look forward to. Gone is Byron Scott and his refusal to use three pointers to his advantage. Gone is Bryant and his absurd usage percentage from last season. In their place, we have Luke Walton implementing a system fit for a modern NBA team, with the proper players to run said system.

With that said, this team is going to have a lot of growing pains. For starters, this team is astonishingly unproven. Luke Walton got rave reviews from nearly everyone in Golden State and he had an extremely impressive coaching record last season, filling in for Steve Kerr, who had taken some time off to heal from a nagging back injury. Walton led the Warriors to a 39-4 record before Kerr returned. That record is mighty impressive, especially for someone as inexperienced at coaching as Walton is, but we do have to question how much of that was Walton and how much of that was the Warriors being absurd last year.

Despite the fact that the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in the Finals, they did still break the regular season record for wins in a season, ending with a 73-9 record. You have to figure there are going to be growing pains for him. Despite how much I like the core of D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle, they aren't anywhere near as good as Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.

Additionally, the talent on this team is immense, but very raw. D'Angelo Russell and rookie Brandon Ingram ooze potential and are likely going to be the cornerstones of the franchise going forward, but they're still very young; neither is old enough to buy a beer yet. Jordan Clarkson is a bit more mature at 24 years old, but he also has some question marks surrounding him. For starters, his defense has not exactly been up to standard the past couple seasons. There are questions as to how much farther he can develop, and if he was merely putting up good numbers on a sub-par team. Julius Randle showed flashes of potential last year, namely the fact that he's already rebounding at an elite rate, but was extremely rough around the edges with his finishing and decision making. Rookie Ivica Zubac looks like an absolute steal in the 2nd round of this year's draft and could potentially anchor the Lakers at center in the future, but he's going to be eased in because of how young and unproven he is.

The building blocks are there, it's just a matter of developing our young core properly. Thankfully, Walton already has some ideas on how to properly utilize each players strengths. Noticing a large drop off in quality of play between the starters and the bench, Walton is going to use Clarkson as the leader of the bench unit and the 6th man. This will be similar to Lamar Odom or Manu Ginobili and their respective roles as 6th men. It will help get both Russell and Clarkson more time with the ball, while significantly improving the bench unit.

Walton has also implemented a system built on screens, off-ball movement and crisp passing that is a much welcome change to the isolation heavy offense that Scott ran last year. As great as Kobe was over his 20 year career, he was a major reason the Lakers were so bad last season, as he was a complete black hole on both sides of the ball and the Lakers were obviously catering to him.

How good will this team be? Probably not very good. For the first time in a long time, the season won't be measured on wins and losses, but rather on how the Lakers win or lose. LA is okay with having another bad season, as long as the young core is taking strides to improve. A 30-52 record is fine, if Russell and co look good while doing so. It's going to be a bumpy road coming up, but for the first time in years, the team finally has something to look forward to.

Jordan Hill and Steve Blake Are Having Career Years

Enough cannot be said about the play of Jordan Hill. Hill, the 8th overall pick in the 2009 NBA draft by the New York Knicks, has always been a force on the boards, averaging an impressive 11.2 rebounds per 36 minutes of play time. Unluckily for him, Mike D'Antoni, who was his coach with the Knicks, benched him early on in the season before ultimately trading him to the Houston Rockets during the middle of the season.

After another season of only getting 15 minutes a game, despite superb rebounding numbers, Hill was traded to the Lakers for Derek Fisher and a 2014 first round pick. Unfortunately, Hill has dealt with numerous injuries through out his career, but he was finally given a chance this year and the results have been better than expected. Hill's per 36 numbers this season? 17.9 points per game, 14.5 rebounds per game. In 20.9 minutes per game, Hill has put up a line of 10.4 points per game and 8.4 rebounds per game. Still want to bench him, Mike? Hill has been worth 1.3 Win Shares through 12 games, which is roughly the same amount he was worth last year in 29 games. His WS/48 is up to an astonishing .248 which is Kobe Bryant level of production, just completely dominating on the boards and playing very good defensively. He currently has a PER of 25.2, which is among the elite of the NBA, currently ranked 6th among players with 10 or more games played. Here's the short list of elite talent that ranks above Hill in PER: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Love, Kevin Durant and Chris Paul.  Of course, this type of production is likely not sustainable for the season, but it is nice to see Hill make the most of his opportunity and he has been enormous for a Laker team that desperately needed a solid big man to play next to Pau Gasol. 

Steve Blake has been rejuvenated playing under Mike D'Antoni. Coming off of his best season ever as a pro last year, he earned a B+ in Hack-a-Shaq's end of the season player reviews. 

"Ultimately, Blake had a big impact on Lakers' basketball, providing a calming presence and quality play in substitution for Steve Nash, either off the bench or starting in place of him (Blake finished with 13 starts on the year). Much like Nash, Blake shot the ball exceptionally well, placing 7th on the Lakers' highest shooting percentage from three point land for a season. In short, Steve Blake redeemed himself for his disappointing seasons with the Lakers and missing the biggest shot of his life, while earning his final season of his contract with the Lakers."

Somehow, Blake has been better than ever and has managed to improve upon last season, as he has upped his scoring average to 9.8 points per game, while nearly doubling his assists per game, currently at an excellent 7.3 (he finished Sunday's game with a whopping 16 assists). Blake has been everything the Lakers have needed and more at the point guard position, doing everything from pick and rolls, to playing excellent defense, to hitting three point shots, including a game winning one over the Dwight Howard led Rockets. 

I don't know about you, but I'm very excited to see what he brings to the table when Kobe Bryant finally returns. If Blake can, at the very least, keep hitting three pointers at this pace (currently shooting 46.4% from deep), the Lakers can be an extremely dangerous squad, with great offensive production at nearly every position. 

More Good News: Kobe Bryant Has Been Fully Medically Cleared to Resume Basketball Activities

After practicing on Saturday and participating in 5-on-0 drills, Kobe Bryant has finally been medically
cleared to resume basketball related activities, just 7 months after rupturing his Achilles vs. the Golden State Warriors. By all accounts, he looks ahead of schedule and is doing well in practice, though isn't all the way there yet.

As of this writing, it's anybody's guess as to when Kobe plans on coming back to the court, though with a rare 4 day stretch without Laker basketball, people have been quick to suggest Kobe might return for Friday's contest vs. the Golden State Warriors, but let's be clear here: Just because he was cleared to return, doesn't mean he is ready to return. My best guess is it will take Kobe something like two to four weeks conditioning and learning to play with new teammates before he comes back.

The Lakers Might Be a Better Team Than We Initially Anticipated

Yes, you read that title right, no it's not a typo. Yes, I know the Lakers are 4-7 and looking just plain awful

Not yet Kobe, not yet.

at times and yes, I know the Lakers are one of the oldest teams in the league, but hear me out.

The Lakers haven't been as injured as they were last year, far from it, having Steve Nash as the only opening night starter to have missed games due to injury. However, the players who have been injured, haven't played yet, or have had limited effectiveness due to injury, have been far more important, as Kobe Bryant has yet to play (though is, by all accounts, physically able to perform. He did return to practice yesterday and told former teammate Rick Fox on NBA TV "If there was a playoff game tonight, I'd play, I'd play. I don't know how effective I'd be, but I would play.") and Pau Gasol has been playing through a left foot strain since the start of the year and isn't properly conditioned thanks to having surgery on both knees during the off season. Nash hasn't been vintage Nash at all this year, and it was clear that he was injured when his shots were missing badly, something that didn't happen during Nash's relatively disappointing first season in Los Angeles, where he had a True Shooting percentage of 60% and was worth a .127 WS/48. Nash has a nerve root irritation and will be re-evaluated in five days. 

Getting Bryant back would be huge, even if he isn't immediately producing. His presence on the offensive end will help open up space for Gasol, Jordan Hill and Chris Kaman in the post, as well as drives to the hoop by Xavier Henry, Jordan Farmar and Wesley Johnson, not to mention pick and rolls with Steve Blake, who has been tremendous with averages of 10 points per game and 6.5 assists per game, while shooting 47.2% from deep. Bryant could also let the team give Gasol extra minutes on the bench to help rest his foot. With the Lakers bench being one of the best in the league this year, averaging close to 50 points per game and 22 rebounds per game, the Lakers starting unit has been lackluster in comparison, largely because the perimeter play has been simply bad and hasn't really opened up any space for Gasol to work in the low post. Obviously, getting Bryant in the game helps solve some of these issues, and helps improve the bench even further, as it would send one of Jodie Meeks or Nick Young directly to the bench. Meeks, in case you haven't noticed, has been great to start the year, leading the Lakers in scoring with 13.2 points per game, with a True Shooting Percentage of 67.7% (!) and providing a WS/48 of .134.

On their good days, a fully healthy Lakers squad can run-and-gun with the best of them (Oklahoma City and Golden State), grind-it-out with teams like Memphis and San Antonio, and as we saw on opening night, keep up with more athletic teams like the Clippers. The only question is: Will they ever get completely healthy? My guess: probably not. 

The Defense is an Absolute Nightmare.

One night after the dominating win over the Clippers, the Lakers go play the Warriors in Oakland and... let's just say we're all back down to Earth after that game. Steve Nash didn't play the back end of the back-to-back because he just might be checking into a nursing home at the end of the year. That left the starting lineup with Steve Blake as the primary ball handler and distributer and Pau Gasol as the team's only real scoring threat, with Nash's passing being sorely missed. 

Before the season, we all figured that offense wouldn't be a big deal, and the defense would be ugly. So far, we aren't wrong, as the Warriors completely had their way with the Lakers' defense, scoring 125 points (Klay Thompson had a career high 38 points last night in only 31 minutes). The whole team played an awful game, full of too many isolations and not enough touches down low for Gasol. 

Then again, it's hard to consistently go to the low block when the other team is making it rain triples. The Warriors shot an absurd 55.7% from downtown (15-27); they ran the fast break to perfection and they made the Lakers respect their three point shooting early and often, opening up driving lanes for Andre Iguodala and Stephen Curry, not to mention help space the floor for David Lee (24 points, 8 rebounds). Some of these were lazy defense on the part of the Lakers, standing pat near the three point line and not putting their hands up, but others were just ridiculously far and/or contested three point shot attempts. I'll give credit where credit is due: Mark Jackson and Jerry West have created an offensive juggernaut, predicated on excellent shooting, crisp and quick passing and dribble penetration, however it is also an offense that can go to the low block to Lee or Andrew Bogut, should the shots not fall. 

Not everything about last night's game was negative. Gasol and Nick Young, once again, only played 23 and 20 minutes, so they should be fully rested and ready to play the San Antonio Spurs on Friday, as will Nash, not having played yesterday's contest. Xavier Henry found his way to the basket on multiple occasions, scoring 14 points and grabbing 4 rebounds, though it was on 4-11 shooting. Wesley Johnson continues to play solid defense all around and at the PF position, which just sounds ridiculous because he's 6'7'' and was a SG for most of his career, recording 2 blocks and 2 steals, and found his long range stroke last night, going 3-6 from deep. Chris Kaman had a solid offensive night, scoring 11 points on 5-9 shooting in only 18 minutes. Rebound Machine Jordan Hill had 7 rebounds in 13 minutes (!)*. All in all, there was something salvageable from that game, and that is Xavier Henry should definitely be the team's top reserve right now and Hill, as well as Kaman, absolutely need more minutes. 

Also: Why is Shawne Williams starting, let alone playing? He only played 12 minutes and recorded 0 points with 2 rebounds. I know it wouldn't have made a difference in this game, but those 12 minutes distributed between Hill and Kaman could be a huge difference maker in other games. On a related note, I would like to see Kaman start along side Gasol against the Spurs and their bigger front line. 

In short: Lazy defense, solid (at times) offense, and a long road to bringing it all together. Let's hope for more of the opener and less of this game for the rest of the year. 

*Side note: Jordan Hill's per 36 minutes numbers: 16.3 points per game and 17.4 rebounds per game. Incredible.

The Lakers Bench Completely Dominated The Clippers Last Night

That game was fun, right!? The Lakers looked like a completely different team last night, beginning with the starting unit that no longer featured Metta World Peace, Dwight Howard or, for the moment, Kobe Bryant. Pau Gasol looked like the Pau we all know and love, finishing the game with 15 points and 13 rebounds in only 24 minutes (projected per 36 minutes numbers: 22.5 points and 19.5 rebounds. Awesome.) Steve Nash did Steve Nash things, finishing with 5 assists in 21 minutes. Steve Blake played good defense, and hit both of his 3 pointers. Nick Young and Shawne Williams looked bad offensively, but chipped in with solid enough defense. 

The Lakers and Clippers were neck and neck going into the fourth quarter with the score 79-75, with the Clippers up...and then the bench checked in. It was so astounding to see Gasol and Nash not check in for the whole 4th quarter; it was even more incredible to see Blake Griffin get dominated defensively by the 6'7'' Wesley Johnson (Griffin finished the quarter with 0 points, as did J.J. Reddick). Chris Paul didn't record a single assist in the quarter. 
The Lakers' reserves outscored the Clippers' starting unit 41-24. It's not what should have happened. The Lakers' bench is largely made up of cast-offs, and players who never really have had their chance. Jodie Meeks scored 9 of his 13 points in the 4th quarter, Jordan Farmar added 16, Xavier Henry was the star of the show, scoring a career high 22 points and adding 6 rebounds, for good measure. Jordan Hill added 12 points and 8 rebounds and absolutely dominated the glass in his 18 minutes of game time. Despite Chris Kaman not playing in the 4th quarter, he still came off the bench last night and chipped in 10 points and 8 rebounds. The bench scored the 3rd highest total for a bench unit in Lakers' history (78 points, the highest in the past 25 years). The Lakers bench mob was projected to put up 154.6 points per 100 possessions, which is absolutely insane. For reference, the best offensive teams will put up something like 115-120 points per 100 possessions. 

Thanks to Hill being a monster on the glass, the Lakers bench grabbed 75% of offensive rebounds while they were on the court. The bench didn't shoot the lights out either, or play spectacular defense (the Clippers ended with 103 points); but they cleaned the glass, limited the Clippers second chance opportunities, and converted a ton of their own second chances. Obviously, this kind of run isn't at all sustainable; you can't rely on Xavier Henry, Jordan Farmar and Wesley Johnson and hope to be successful over the course of an 82 game season, but for today at least, they are the unlikely heroes. 

It will definitely be interesting to see how the team adjusts once Kobe Bryant comes back. For the moment, the Lakers look like one of the most versatile teams in the league without Howard clogging up the lane, as they can go with a small ball lineup, like they did last night with Farmar, Meeks, Henry, Johnson and Hill; or they can go with an extremely big lineup, with Nash or Blake, Henry, Johnson, Gasol and Kaman. There are a lot of options for this team; at the very least, they look like they will be an exciting, athletic squad this year. For now, the main focus is tonight's game in Oakland vs. the Golden State Warriors, which will be a test; thankfully, nobody played over 27 minutes last night. 

Chris Kaman Scouting Report

Many Laker fans are familiar with newest Laker center Chris Kaman for his time with the Los Angeles Clippers, however he hasn't played for a Los Angeles team for the past two years, and some may have forgotten about him. Whether you know a lot of about him or not, here's my scouting report of the newest Lakers:

A part of the 2003 NBA draft class, considered one of the best draft classes of all time, rivaling the 1984 and 1996 draft classes that included Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, respectively, Kaman has built a solid career for himself. The 6th overall pick of that draft, Kaman is one of eight all star players of that draft class, averaging 18 points per game and 9 rebounds per game in his all star season. Having a career 12 points per game and 8 rebounds per game stat line, one can see right off the bat that Kaman is a solid, if unspectacular, player. Coming in at 7 feet, 268 pounds, Kaman has ideal size for a center, yet he runs the floor very well on both offensive fast breaks and defensive fast breaks. The one time All-Star center has the proper length to contest shots in the paint, and the proper weight to be effective on the low block. Possessing excellent foot work down low, Kaman has a few go-to post moves, including a good fade away jump shot, a solid array of righty and lefty jump hooks and a solid up and under move and is a capable finisher near the rim, with the ability to finish well with both hands.

Kaman has a very Al Jefferson like offensive game. Although he is a good player to have in the post, recent years have shown Kaman has a very nice jumper from 16 feet to the three point line, as he made 52% of those just last season. Though he isn't a three point shooter, Kaman does a very good job of stretching the floor with his mid range jump shot; this should help Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant in the low block as teams likely will hesitate to commit to the double teams with Kaman on the court. Kaman is also a capable pick and roll and pick and fade player, thanks to his diverse skill set.

Kaman has the potential to be one of the better centers in the league, even at 31 years old. He is very solid defensively, moving his feet well to stay in front of the opposition and using his body well to keep opponents from getting easy baskets. He isn't the most athletic center, and he can't jump anywhere near as high as the last Laker center, but he times his jumps well and uses his height and large wingspan to successfully block shots (averages 1.4 blocks per game, 1.7 per 36 minutes). He's not quite Dwight Howard in defensive presence, but is still a player teams take into account when driving to the basket. Kaman is also very good at rebounding, using his body well to box out opposing centers and power forwards, while timing his jumps well to ensure the rebound is his. During his better seasons, Kaman would average over nine rebounds per game, even averaging 12.7 per game during the 2007-2008 season.

As with every player, there are negatives to those positives. He doesn't have the highest basketball I.Q, but he generally knows when not to force the action, though Kaman isn't a good passer, frequently making mistakes with the ball, such as bad passes or holding it too long in the low block, leading to a turnover (evidenced by his career 1.3 assists per game to his 2.2 turnovers per game). He also has the tendency to get into quick and early foul trouble (he averaged over 3 fouls per game in his earlier days with the Clippers, and averages nearly 4 fouls per game per 36 minutes played). This still isn't Kaman's biggest issue, has he has been largely injury prone for the second half of his career, barely averaging 51 games played in the last 6 seasons, a number I believe should rise in a bench role behind Gasol and Jordan Hill.

Overall, Kaman is a good player to have on the roster, especially on a one year deal like the Lakers signed him to. The only question is: Can Kaman stay healthy?

The Lakers Plan, Post Dwightmare

I won't get into the "Dwight Howard Sweepstakes" or, as Magic and Laker fans know it as, the
"Dwightmare", since I'm sure we've heard enough of the new Houston Rockets center and his baggage.

Howard left the Lakers high and dry, with virtually no young talent on the roster and only one first round draft pick in the near future (next year's 2014 draft). One would be tempted to suggest the Lakers should tank next season to get a Top 5 draft choice, but I don't see it. Unless Kobe Bryant misses the first 3 months of the year and is slow in getting his stroke back, this team simply isn't bad enough for a Top 5 pick. They are too talented for it. Now, that's not to say the Lakers won't be in the lottery, because if Bryant misses a lot of time rehabbing the torn Achilles injury suffered last season, the Lakers could likely miss the playoffs, thus putting them at about a low probability of getting the No. 1 overall pick. And while a lottery pick is very valuable to an aging team, that's not really where Mitch Kupchak seems to be going with this franchise.

As of this writing, the Lakers would have only 2 player on the roster for next season as Bryant's massive 30 million dollar cap hit finally comes off the books as well as Pau Gasol's 19 million cap hit. The only two players on the roster for next season is Steve Nash and Robert Sacre. Nash would be owed 9 million and Sacre will be earning the league minimum. Let's make this clear: The Lakers will be getting 67 million off the books next season, finally getting under the cap limit for the first time in a long time and that is huge because free agency is what Mitch Kupchak and the Lakers are eyeing, and it's easy to see why. Here's a partial list of potentially available free agents in 2014:

* LeBron James (Early Termination option)
* Dwyane Wade (Early Termination option)
* Chris Bosh (Early Termination option)
* Dirk Nowizki 
* Rudy Gay (Player Option)
* Paul George (Qualifying offer)
* Danny Granger
* Carmelo Anthony (Early Termination Option)
* John Wall (Qualifying offer)
* Luol Deng
* Zach Randolph (Player Option)
* Greg Monroe (Qualifying offer)

And those are just the bigger names; the 2014 class can include some very good, starter caliber players like Darren Collison, Gordon Hayward, Greivis Vasquez, just to name a few. With the 60 or so million in cap space, the Lakers would have the ability to offer two top tier free agents max contracts (in the range of 4 years, 88 million dollars) and still have roughly 16 million to sign other, quality free agents (assuming Kupchak finds a way to rid the team of Nash). Though they wouldn't be able to offer "true" max contracts (it's 1 extra year, 30 million more that the player's current team can offer), Los Angeles remains a top destination for free agents, especially if the Lakers can keep both Bryant and Gasol on team friendly deals, using the Bird Rights they have on them. And while some will point out that a team isn't constructed on merely 4 or 5 players, the Lakers would still have players on the rookie scale (newly drafted power forward Ryan Kelly, any other player(s) they draft in next season's draft), and they would still be able to offer the veteran minimum of 1.4 million without it counting against the cap, as well as 3.1 million of Mini Mid Level Exception money.

There are a lot of players with the Qualifying offer tag next to them, this means the player's current team can offer them a qualifying offer, basically making them a restricted free agent, enabling the player's current team to match any offer from other teams made to their player. If the offer is matched, the player returns to the original team, unless they do a buy out, which would make him an unrestricted free agent. This rule is what will make guys like Paul George and John Wall very unlikely to acquire. With that said, if the Pistons or Wizards believe their players with qualifying offers aren't worth max contracts (Wall certainly is, Monroe is getting there), then they won't match and the player is free to go where he so desires.

Now, granted, a lot can change between now and next summer, but it appears that Bryant wants to team up with current New York Knicks star Carmelo Anthony; should the Knicks flame out early in the playoffs yet again, Anthony could end up donning the Purple and Gold. It helps that Bryant and Anthony are apparently "very close" thanks to the 2008 and 2012 Olympic Games. If I had to guess, after the Lakers strike out on LeBron, Mitch will target Carmelo and a quality guard like Wall.

As bleak as people make the future seem for the Lakers, it simply isn't so. All in all, the Lakers look to get back atop the NBA world in one off season; armed with 60+ million in cap space, anything is possible for Mitch Kupchak and co.

Laker vs. Heat Tonight is a Pivotal Game for Los Angeles

Big game tonight in the NBA as two star-studded, but very different teams take each other on for the first time this season. Los Angeles has struggled to get everyone healthy and on the court while Miami has been relatively healthy this year. Here are the keys to tonight’s game:

·         Defense.

I can’t stress this enough, the Lakers need to help each other out on the defensive end to have a chance to win tonight. Metta World Peace is a great defender, and has the strength to bang with LeBron James in the post, but he can’t stay with him on the perimeter, as James constantly drives in against bulkier opponents like World Peace. Earl Clark, on the other hand, is too much of a light weight to handle LeBron in the post. Help defense will be required, more than likely from Dwight Howard, but the other players have to rotate to help Howard. Make Miami take jump shots, and not layups and dunks.  Kobe Bryant will likely be covering Dwyane Wade in what is the most balanced matchup of the night and Bryant better be ready for the physical game Wade brings to the table. He’s not Kyrie Irving or Brandon Jennings (speedster point guards with good jumpers), Wade is a whole other beast. I expect Bryant to sag off of Wade, as he is not the best 3 point shooter (Wade knows this and his limited his outside jumpers the past couple of years. He has only taken 39 three pointers this season). Wade is fast, agile and can jump out of the building. Think of him as a 6’4’’ version of James, as he is physically gifted and has great vision and passing ability to accompany his drive heavy offensive game. If at all possible, the Lakers want to make Chris Bosh and Co. beat them, not James or Wade. It’s possible for the Lakers to play the old Kobe Defense teams used to do against them. Let James play one on one with World Peace and don’t send too much help D, while putting the clamps on the rest of James’ teammates, though I seriously doubt they go this route.

·         Rebounding.

The Heat are a notoriously bad rebounding team, they are 30^th in rebounds, and are 5^th in opponent rebounding. The Lakers need to take advantage and get second chance opportunities for themselves, while limiting the second chance opportunities for Miami. The Lakers way out size and out bulk the Heat with Howard in the middle, and complimentary pieces like the 6’10’’ Clark and Pau Gasol (who will play tonight). The Lakers are 8^th in rebounding, and 14^th in opponent rebounding. Los Angeles needs to come out crashing the boards with energy to have a shot at winning.

·         Sink their open jumpshots.

We know the offensive skills of Bryant and Howard will be the main work force for the Lakers tonight, but when Bryant, Howard and Steve Nash pass the ball, the role players need to be prepared to sink their jumpers. World Peace needs to be consistent from deep, as well as Antawn Jamison and to a lesser extent, Clark from mid-range. This extends to free throws as well; the Lakers can’t leave points on the board and expect to beat the defending champions.

·         Pound the ball down low.

Miami is a very undersized team. Their tallest player who gets regular minutes is Bosh at 6’10’’ and there’s no way he could handle Howard in the post, as Bosh only weighs 228 pounds to Howard’s 265 pounds. Miami’s starting center is Joel Anthony, who is also a bit undersized for the position (6’9’’, 245 lb). If the Lakers establish their dominance down low with Howard and Gasol, it could open up the game for shooters like Jamison and Meeks.

·         Last but not least: Limit turnovers.

Against most teams, turnovers will keep the Lakers down, but not out. Against Miami, turnovers will completely take Los Angeles out of the game. Miami is the best fastbreak team in the NBA, mostly on the speed and athleticism of Wade and James. Considering how much older and slower the Lakers are, they can’t afford to make this game a track meet. Grind out possessions and take care of the ball and L.A. has a chance.

The good news for the Lakers is Gasol is coming back tonight, but he will be coming off the bench. His size will be important for rebounding purposes and help defense. Gasol will most likely anchor the second unit when Bryant, Howard and Nash go out of the game late in the first quarter, early in the second quarter. The big story tonight is Kobe vs. LeBron, but if the Lakers let it get to that, they will lose tonight. A team game must be played in order to beat Miami. 

The More Things Change, the More Things Stay the Same

This has been the whole Lakers' team mentality during this run, save for Nash.

The Lakers have been seemingly cursed this season as they have lost 40 games of injury to their starters alone, but it was usually in balanced fashion, as in one perimeter player and one post player is out. Not for this stretch, as everybody over 6’10’’ not named Robert Sacre is injured right now (Pau Gasol with a concussion, Dwight Howard with a torn labrum, Steve Blake with a torn abdomen and Jordan Hill with loose fragments in his hip which will require season ending surgery). The Lakers are going with the smallest ball possible, as they have had stretches where Metta World Peace and Earl Clark/Antawn Jamison are playing center and power forward and this is a bigger problem than turnovers and bad shots combined. The positive news here is Clark’s and Hill’s Per 36 numbers are nearly identical, the only difference really being how physical Hill is compared to Clark, though Clark is far more versatile, as he can slide to the outside and defense perimeter players (like he did on Wednesday vs. the Spurs, as he took on Manu Ginobili).

Let’s get one thing straight: Defense wins championships. No team has a chance of winning it all if they allow 105+ points per game. It’s the reason why the D’Antoni-Steve Nash led Phoenix Suns never made it past the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers have some excellent man to man defenders with World Peace, Kobe Bryant and Howard but the team’s lack of defensive fundamentals is seriously disturbing; nobody on the team rotates to help the help defender, and on occasions, nobody rotates to help the initial defender. This is the cause of the uncontested shots most opposing teams have in or around the paint. The Lakers lack of trust in each other this late into the season is something to seriously be concerned about and it makes me question whether this team can ever make a deep post season run. D’Antoni may have fixed the offense, or better said, D’Antoni made it easier for Nash to fix the offense (103.2 PPG, good for 4^th in the league) as the Princeton wasn’t a system apt for Nash but D’Antoni hasn’t been preaching defense at all this season, save for the rare occasions when an opposing team makes an early run, only to have D’Antoni call a time out to get everybody organized. The Lakers defense is among the bottom of the league, as they surprisingly don’t allow more points than they score despite their 15-21 record. The Lakers allow 101.7 points per game, good for 26^th in the league, and that’s something that’s not even close to cutting it in this league. The one constant though out NBA history has been: the team that plays defense usually ends up winning it all. It doesn’t matter how offensively oriented the league has become; defense is still the most important aspect of the game.

I am hopefully Howard’s injury won’t keep him out for long, and Los Angeles can get back to having somebody back there to protect the rim, as having World Peace and Jamison back there made for a lot of easy layups and in the paint, uncontested jumpers. Howard’s presence alone is a huge difference maker (reference the last time LA played OKC), as guys generally change their shots as to try not to get swatted into the 10^th row. And while Gasol may be softer than marshmallows, he still provides some defensive value as his length is still there to help contest shots (though I still insist on trading him while he has value, especially now that Earl Clark as made a name for himself and Artest is reverting to last year’s horrid form). The Lakers are very fixable because of the talent the team has, but it won’t get done until the team itself does some serious soul searching and starts to work hard on the defensive end.

As an end note, kudos to Howard about a month ago for calling Kobe on his free safety style defense. Bryant told him not to do it again; Howard said he would do it again if Kobe didn’t rotate. It takes some serious guts to tell Kobe what to do on his own team, definitely the make of a Franchise Player. 

Knicks @ Lakers December 25, 2012: Merry Christmas from the Staples Center!

Happy Holidays from Hack-a-Shaq!

What a wild ride Saturday was, right? In what was the game of the season so far for the Lakers (and maybe the league), Los Angeles just happened to pull off a gutsy comeback over a red-hot Warriors team, willing their way back into the contest and getting out of Golden State with a 118-115 OT victory (the team’s first OT of the year).  The game was relatively lopsided for the first 3 quarters, however, the entire 4th quarter and OT was an incredible slugfest, including some amazing shots, smartly drawn up plays and some surprising misses from both teams, The 4^th included 7 lead changes in the last 4 minutes of the game with both teams going back and forth after the 2 minute mark.

This looked like a game where the Lakers could have broken down, like they have in so many close contests to start the year.  With Dwight Howard committing quick and dumb fouls in the beginning of every single quarter (save for OT) and Kobe Bryant tossing up shot after shot after shot and never once reaching the free throw line (technical foul FT doesn’t exactly count); facing a young, relatively healthy (let’s not forget: big man Andrew Bogut is still riding the pine with injury) and loaded Warriors team on the road seemed like a recipe for disaster. Of course, in typical Laker fashion, the team went down big for the second game in a row, looking like the frustrating side of this team by going down 14 in the 3rd quarter and taking a 13 point deficit into the 4th.  The defense looked slow and nobody was rotating on backdoor cuts, while the offense wasn’t working like we anticipated with Steve Nash in his first game back.  Somehow, off of the brilliance of Metta World Peace, Jodie Meeks and the incredible energy Jordan Hill brings, the Lakers’ backups brought the team back within striking distance, before Mike D’Antoni brought the starters back in the game to close out the game in OT.

The biggest headline of the game – one we didn’t know would happen until gametime – was the return of All-Star Steve Nash.  How would the Lakers use him and how many minutes could he play, not having played a game in about two months? D’Antoni used him for 41 minutes in his first game back, something nobody expected, especially with him coming off of a 2 month injury layoff and never having played heavy minutes throughout his career. A very good sign though: he didn’t look like he was laboring or fatigued, so his conditioning seems to be in a decent place.  Much like I though, Nash controlled most of the game for the first three quarters, using D’Antoni patented Pick and Rolls with both Howard and Pau Gasol. Time after time, he would weave his way into the lane; looking to set up his teammates rather than himself (he only had 8 shot attempts). It seems my only two gripes with this game was the lack of defense played by Los Angeles and Bryant still forcing up shots despite Nash being back to create offense for others, though I will commend Kobe for sinking some key jumpers despite having missed so many of them earlier. Not a lot of players would have come through being as cold as he was, but time and time again, Bryant came through in the clutch.

The most surprising part about Saturday’s game came in the 4^th quarter with Bryant, Howard, Nash, Gasol and World Peace on the court. Reaching the 5 minute mark, the team went away from the standard pick and roll offense and instead used the Horns offense, where the point guard has the ball at the top of the three point line, shooting guard and small forward roll to the corners and the two post players come up to the elbows and set double screens for the point guard. The Lakers ran the Mike Brown variation they had used last season and gave the ball to Gasol at the high post, but this time, Nash rolled around him and set a backdoor screen on Howard’s man to let him roll to the bucket, in which Gasol would give him the entry pass via alley-oop. It was uncharacteristic of D’Antoni, but it completely caught Golden State by surprised and worked to perfection. They used the same play later in OT, but Howard lost grip of the ball and couldn’t finish the jam. It was still not my favorite coaching move by D’Antoni, however, as he drew up an incredibly smart play toward the end of the 4^th quarter. A more standard pick and roll play, Bryant was on the strong side, and Nash and D’Antoni knew they would roll to his side once Nash cleared Howard’s pick. Nash gave the ball to a rolling Howard at the high post after passing the pick, and sure enough, Golden State made sure Bryant wouldn’t receive and open shot by keeping a man on him, but at the same time, collapsing the defense so Howard wouldn’t reach the paint. This opened up a wide open shot for my player of the game Metta World Peace, who calmly sank the three pointer to give the Lakers the lead.

Nash finished with an impressive 12 points and nine assists, including a huge three in the 4th and his signature, one-legged, mid-range jump shot in the lane to seal the game in OT. The offense looked incredibly smooth and seamless in his return as he helped set up his teammates to get them going and made a lot of smart plays down the stretch. His impact was immediate, and the validity of all the “wait for Nash” arguments seem supported now that he is back and has the Lakers offense looking like the best in the league.

Check out the subtle screen by Nash at the 1:10 mark and the aformentioned play at the 1:57 mark.

And hey, it’s Christmas, and what better gift could the Lakers give it’s loyal fans than a win against the Eastern Conference’s number one team, the New York Knicks, a team that already beat the Lakers on December 13^th 116-107; that team was vastly different from the one Los Angeles is trotting out today as Gasol and Nash were still out at this time. There’s nothing like a little revenge, right? It will be interesting to see if Mike D’Antoni will be starting World Peace today, as he has stated that Metta will start during games against star players at his position, and clearly, Gasol would be overmatched going up against Carmelo Anthony at the 4 slot. Devin Ebanks or Darius Morris could start, pushing Kobe to the 3 to cover Ronnie Brewer and World Peace to the 4 to cover Anthony, with Gasol coming off the bench for today’s matchup. For all intents and purposes, I will list the starting lineup that I would field against New York as the lineup will not be known until a later time, including Morris, who I would put in to help counter Jason Kidd at the 2.

Starting Lineups:

Position	Knicks	Lakers
Point Guard	Raymond Felton	Steve Nash (!!!)
Shooting Guard	Jason Kidd	Darius Morris
Small Forward	Ronnie Brewer	Kobe Bryant
Power Forward	Carmelo Anthony	Metta World Peace
Center	Tyson Chandler	Dwight Howard

Merry Christmas everybody and Happy Holidays! Enjoy Laker basketball today with your loved ones.

Antawn Jamison Starting Over Pau Gasol is a Matter of When Rather than If

The NBA season is under full swing and the Lakers have been the most bipolar team in the league 16 games into the season. The Lakers have yet to play with everyone healthy as point guards Steve Nash and Steve Blake have been out with a leg fracture and an abdominal strain respectively. So far, Nash only played in two games (both with Mike Brown and his Princeton Offense) and Blake has only played in 7 games (running the Princeton in which he looked extremely comfortable and a couple of games of Bernie Bickerstaff’s free flowing offense).

But having Nash and Blake has had no effect on Pau Gasol’s game so far; he has been, at times, atrocious and at other times, merely adequate. This team wasn’t a fit for Gasol before Mike D’Antoni jumped on board, but now it seems inevitable that either Gasol gets traded (Atlanta forward Josh Smith being the player on my wish list if this were the case) or goes into the 6^th man role with Antawn Jamison starting alongside Dwight Howard to help stretch the defense and give Howard more room to operate. Jamison started the season extremely bad; at one point, Jamison was shooting 16% from beyond the arc, he has since improved it to 30% with this 4 game stretch of good games (minus the Indiana one, but everybody not named Kobe Bryant were missing shots left and right). Before these 4 games, Jamison was 22.2% from deep and a measly 35.5% total shooting, however he has been scorching hot in the past 4 games as he has made 28 out of 48 for a percentage of 58.3% from the floor. He has averaged 17.8 points per game and 9.5 rebounds per game as it seems Jamison needed a little bit of time to find his groove with this team.

Straight up, the numbers heavily favor Gasol for one big reason: Gasol is averaging 35.2 minutes a game to Jamison’s 18.4:

Stat	Pau Gasol	Antawn Jamison
Points Per Game	12.7	7.3
Rebounds Per Game	8.9	4.6
Assists Per Game	3.6	0.7
Shooting Percentage	42.3%	47.3%
3 point shooting percentage	28.6%	30.4%
Free Throw Percentage	75.9%	66.7%

At first glance, Gasol is looking better than Jamison however, the Per 36 minutes a game numbers favor Jamison in some key aspects:

Stats	Gasol	Jamison
Points per 36 minutes	13.0	14.2
Rebounds per 36 minutes	9.1	9.1
Assists per 36 minutes	3.7	1.3
Shooting Percentage	42.3%	47.3%
3 point shooting percentage	28.6%	30.4
Free throw percentage	75.9%	66.7

The advanced numbers don’t favor Gasol either as Jamison has been outplaying for at least these past 4 games and has been steadily getting better all season long:

Advanced Stat	Pau Gasol	Antawn Jamison
PER	15.2	15.8
True Shooting Percentage	47.7%	56.7%
Effective Field Goal Percentage	42.9%	54.8%
Total Rebound Percentage	14.2%	14.1%
Turnover Percentage	12.4%	10.5%
Win Shares per 48	.120	.155

So, for those who don’t know: PER is a measurement of how efficient a player is when he is on the floor; 15 is league average. True shooting percentage is field goal percentage from 2 point range, 3 point range and the free throw line. Effective field goal percentage adjusts for the fact that a 3 point shot is worth more than a 2 point shot. Total rebound percentage and Turnover percentage are pretty self explanatory and I decided to use Win Shares per 48 because Win Shares wouldn’t be fair to Jamison having played 269 less minutes than Gasol (it’s similar to Baseball’s WAR statistic) while WS/48 tells us how many games the player won in 48 minutes; .100 is league average. Gasol being worse than Jamison in every stat except for rebound percentage, where they are neck and neck, is troubling.

This isn’t Gasol having a bad stretch either; he was beginning to struggle last season, but wasn’t as ineffective playing with the emerging Andrew Bynum because Bynum doesn’t dominate the post like Howard does. Clearly, Gasol isn’t a power forward who can share the low block and find his offense elsewhere; he needs his back to the basket, something the team will not be giving him because Howard is far superior in the post and commands double teams, something Gasol hasn’t done since 2010. Gasol is a very smart player, however, and his high post passing is among the best in the league (Josh Smith a close second), but his jumper just doesn’t have the range D’Antoni requires to stretch the floor. Here are the shooting percentages per ranges for each player:

Range	Pau Gasol	Antawn Jamison
At Rim	65.9%	88.9%
3-9 Feet	27.1%	45.5%
10-15 Feet	36.0%	100%
16-3 point line	41.5%	50.0%
3 point	28.6%	30.4%

As expected for a 7 footer, Gasol is finishing at the rim right around his career rate and his 16-3 point jump shot has been spot on to start the year, but from any other range, Gasol’s numbers are alarmingly bad. He isn’t a 3 point shooter, so 28% isn’t all that bad, but what is up with his TURRIBLE 27% from 3-9 feet? That is absolutely unacceptable for a big. My theory is Gasol is forcing up more shots as his offensive role with the team is becoming smaller and smaller. Meanwhile, Jamison is burning the nets from all ranges (to be fair, his 100% from the 10-15 range is on one spectacular shot against the Grizzlies). Jamison is not a player who requires touches in the post to create his offense; in fact, Jamison is more comfortable playing off of the ball and having his teammates help create a shot for him (something Howard has been doing well so far). I’m very comfortable with Gasol coming off of the bench to bolster the 2^nd unit ala Manu Ginobili and getting his post touches, however it’s clear that Gasol would not be playing at the end of games because he can’t coexist with Howard and his clogging up the lane. For now, Gasol will be starting alongside Howard, Bryant, Metta World Peace and Darius Morris (soon to be Steve Nash hopefully) but his role will continue to diminish as Jamison continues to find his groove within D’Antoni’s offense.

On to tonight’s game: the Lakers will face off against Howard’s former team, the Orlando Magic (5-10). The Magic have been horrid on offense averaging a measly 91.1 points per game on the year while allowing 96.4 per game. Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ offense has been running on all cylinders averaging 100.6 per game. A lot of defense has been played during the D’Antoni era as LA is only giving up 95.9 points per game.

 Starting Lineups:

Position	Magic	Lakers
Point Guard	Jameer Nelson	Darius Morris
Shooting Guard	Aaron Afflalo	Kobe Bryant
Small Forward	Moe Harkless	Metta World Peace
Power Forward	Glen Davis	Pau Gasol
Center	Nikola Vucevic	Dwight Howard