Antawn Jamison Starting Over Pau Gasol is a Matter of When Rather than If

The NBA season is under full swing and the Lakers have been the most bipolar team in the league 16 games into the season. The Lakers have yet to play with everyone healthy as point guards Steve Nash and Steve Blake have been out with a leg fracture and an abdominal strain respectively. So far, Nash only played in two games (both with Mike Brown and his Princeton Offense) and Blake has only played in 7 games (running the Princeton in which he looked extremely comfortable and a couple of games of Bernie Bickerstaff’s free flowing offense).

But having Nash and Blake has had no effect on Pau Gasol’s game so far; he has been, at times, atrocious and at other times, merely adequate. This team wasn’t a fit for Gasol before Mike D’Antoni jumped on board, but now it seems inevitable that either Gasol gets traded (Atlanta forward Josh Smith being the player on my wish list if this were the case) or goes into the 6^th man role with Antawn Jamison starting alongside Dwight Howard to help stretch the defense and give Howard more room to operate. Jamison started the season extremely bad; at one point, Jamison was shooting 16% from beyond the arc, he has since improved it to 30% with this 4 game stretch of good games (minus the Indiana one, but everybody not named Kobe Bryant were missing shots left and right). Before these 4 games, Jamison was 22.2% from deep and a measly 35.5% total shooting, however he has been scorching hot in the past 4 games as he has made 28 out of 48 for a percentage of 58.3% from the floor. He has averaged 17.8 points per game and 9.5 rebounds per game as it seems Jamison needed a little bit of time to find his groove with this team.

Straight up, the numbers heavily favor Gasol for one big reason: Gasol is averaging 35.2 minutes a game to Jamison’s 18.4:

Stat	Pau Gasol	Antawn Jamison
Points Per Game	12.7	7.3
Rebounds Per Game	8.9	4.6
Assists Per Game	3.6	0.7
Shooting Percentage	42.3%	47.3%
3 point shooting percentage	28.6%	30.4%
Free Throw Percentage	75.9%	66.7%

At first glance, Gasol is looking better than Jamison however, the Per 36 minutes a game numbers favor Jamison in some key aspects:

Stats	Gasol	Jamison
Points per 36 minutes	13.0	14.2
Rebounds per 36 minutes	9.1	9.1
Assists per 36 minutes	3.7	1.3
Shooting Percentage	42.3%	47.3%
3 point shooting percentage	28.6%	30.4
Free throw percentage	75.9%	66.7

The advanced numbers don’t favor Gasol either as Jamison has been outplaying for at least these past 4 games and has been steadily getting better all season long:

Advanced Stat	Pau Gasol	Antawn Jamison
PER	15.2	15.8
True Shooting Percentage	47.7%	56.7%
Effective Field Goal Percentage	42.9%	54.8%
Total Rebound Percentage	14.2%	14.1%
Turnover Percentage	12.4%	10.5%
Win Shares per 48	.120	.155

So, for those who don’t know: PER is a measurement of how efficient a player is when he is on the floor; 15 is league average. True shooting percentage is field goal percentage from 2 point range, 3 point range and the free throw line. Effective field goal percentage adjusts for the fact that a 3 point shot is worth more than a 2 point shot. Total rebound percentage and Turnover percentage are pretty self explanatory and I decided to use Win Shares per 48 because Win Shares wouldn’t be fair to Jamison having played 269 less minutes than Gasol (it’s similar to Baseball’s WAR statistic) while WS/48 tells us how many games the player won in 48 minutes; .100 is league average. Gasol being worse than Jamison in every stat except for rebound percentage, where they are neck and neck, is troubling.

This isn’t Gasol having a bad stretch either; he was beginning to struggle last season, but wasn’t as ineffective playing with the emerging Andrew Bynum because Bynum doesn’t dominate the post like Howard does. Clearly, Gasol isn’t a power forward who can share the low block and find his offense elsewhere; he needs his back to the basket, something the team will not be giving him because Howard is far superior in the post and commands double teams, something Gasol hasn’t done since 2010. Gasol is a very smart player, however, and his high post passing is among the best in the league (Josh Smith a close second), but his jumper just doesn’t have the range D’Antoni requires to stretch the floor. Here are the shooting percentages per ranges for each player:

Range	Pau Gasol	Antawn Jamison
At Rim	65.9%	88.9%
3-9 Feet	27.1%	45.5%
10-15 Feet	36.0%	100%
16-3 point line	41.5%	50.0%
3 point	28.6%	30.4%

As expected for a 7 footer, Gasol is finishing at the rim right around his career rate and his 16-3 point jump shot has been spot on to start the year, but from any other range, Gasol’s numbers are alarmingly bad. He isn’t a 3 point shooter, so 28% isn’t all that bad, but what is up with his TURRIBLE 27% from 3-9 feet? That is absolutely unacceptable for a big. My theory is Gasol is forcing up more shots as his offensive role with the team is becoming smaller and smaller. Meanwhile, Jamison is burning the nets from all ranges (to be fair, his 100% from the 10-15 range is on one spectacular shot against the Grizzlies). Jamison is not a player who requires touches in the post to create his offense; in fact, Jamison is more comfortable playing off of the ball and having his teammates help create a shot for him (something Howard has been doing well so far). I’m very comfortable with Gasol coming off of the bench to bolster the 2^nd unit ala Manu Ginobili and getting his post touches, however it’s clear that Gasol would not be playing at the end of games because he can’t coexist with Howard and his clogging up the lane. For now, Gasol will be starting alongside Howard, Bryant, Metta World Peace and Darius Morris (soon to be Steve Nash hopefully) but his role will continue to diminish as Jamison continues to find his groove within D’Antoni’s offense.

On to tonight’s game: the Lakers will face off against Howard’s former team, the Orlando Magic (5-10). The Magic have been horrid on offense averaging a measly 91.1 points per game on the year while allowing 96.4 per game. Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ offense has been running on all cylinders averaging 100.6 per game. A lot of defense has been played during the D’Antoni era as LA is only giving up 95.9 points per game.

 Starting Lineups:

Position	Magic	Lakers
Point Guard	Jameer Nelson	Darius Morris
Shooting Guard	Aaron Afflalo	Kobe Bryant
Small Forward	Moe Harkless	Metta World Peace
Power Forward	Glen Davis	Pau Gasol
Center	Nikola Vucevic	Dwight Howard

Metta World Peace's Role Could Change Significantly With Mike D'Antoni

I think most Laker fans appreciate Metta World Peace for what he is: a defensive specialist who can occasionally sink his three pointers with consistency. World Peace has seemingly lost the ability to dribble the ball well and has become extremely one dimensional offensively; he has yet to master that one dimension like other notable defensive specialists such as the retired Bruce Bowen or Miami’s Shane Battier. World Peace’s biggest problem with Los Angeles during his whole tenure with the team has not been his inability to consistently make teams pay from beyond the arch, but rather, his willingness to shoot despite the defense on him or the shot clock having more than 10 seconds left on it. World Peace is shooting as if he was still “the man” on his team, when in reality he has become the weakest link in the starting lineup.

He’s a fan favorite for his on court antics, his personality and this play that is forever embedded in Finals and Laker history:

The problem with Metta World Peace is his very streaky shooting and his general lack of speed; you need to be fast or consistent from deep to play within Mike D’Antoni’s extremely fast 7-seconds-or-less offensive style of play and World Peace doesn’t have either of those characteristics.  

There are a few replacements for World Peace at the Small Forward slot within the team. These options begin with:

Antawn Jamison: By far my favorite player to log in heavy minutes at the SF slot instead of World Peace, he lacks the speed to effectively run with Steve Nash for the whole game, but his shooting ability is much more consistent than that of World Peace. Jamison also has a post-game, can put the ball on the floor and is, in general, a better fit for the system than Metta World Peace is. Jamison is extremely versatile; he can play the Power Forward position and be a true “Stretch-4” for the Lakers, he can play his more natural position at the Small Forward, and he can, on occasion, play against bigger and slower shooting guards. 

We may see some experimentation from D’Antoni once Nash gets back on the court. This could mean D’Antoni going with a “small” lineup that can stretch the floor, with Jamison and Pau Gasol being the two post players, Kobe Bryant playing Small Forward, Jodie Meeks holding down the shooting guard role and Steve Nash running the show. Whether Jamison indeed becomes a starter or not, once D’Antoni finally meets with the team, his role should be expanded within the team, taking over Jordan Hill’s minutes at power forward, while splitting his playing time between power forward and small forward. Jamison’s Win Share per 48 minutes is a below average .084 so far in the season, this can be attributed to his relatively little playing time on the court, and his poor shooting start to the season; however this indicates that given more playing time, it should increase over the course of the season.  

Devin Ebanks: A very solid defensive player, probably the best perimeter defense player on the bench. He plays with high energy and a silky smooth mid-range jump shot. The problem with Ebanks, and main reason he rarely sees the court, is his relatively low basketball I.Q, and the extremely limited range on his shot; Ebanks can only shoot from about 15 to 20 feet without straining his jump shot and thus, making his shot extremely flat from the outside. Ebanks, so far, looks like a poor man’s World Peace with slightly better dribbling skills. Ebanks has been increasing his skill level bit by bit every year, however this year, he has not seen the court very much, only having played 41 minutes in 4 games, most of that being mop up work during the Lakers blowout wins. Ebanks’ Win Share per 48 minutes is a horrid -0.076, well below the league average of .100.

Jodie Meeks: Meeks is known primarily for his offense; he has good transitional speed and is a marksman from three point range as he shoots 36.8% from beyond the arch for his career. An excellent fast break player, but not from the same mold of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, as Meeks is very good at recognizing what his point guard is trying to do, and he usually trails by the three point line for an easy, wide open shot. Meeks has probably been the most disappointing acquisition by the Lakers so far in the season. He is shooting barely 27.3% from the field and has looked lost so far, as he tries to find his shooting groove. His WS/48 has been absolutely atrocious at -0.126, and is the only player on this list with a negative total Win Share. Meeks is very similar to Leandro Barbosa offensively, with the exception of being able to slide to point guard, however Meeks is leaps and bounds better defensively. That’s not to say he’s a good defender, by all means he is not, but he is perfectly adequate at it, and generally plays with energy on that side of the ball.  In short, he’s the exact type of player Mike D’Antoni looks for in his system, but he has been extremely disappointing to start the season. Meeks would not play SF directly; he would play shooting guard and have Bryant slide over to SF if he were to ever start a game.

Obviously, World Peace would not be replaced; he will likely be the starter for the whole season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t receive less playing time in favor of one of the options listed above (Antawn Jamison being the best choice). Currently, World Peace is playing 35 minutes per game, and is becoming an offensive liability, especially during crunch time. Metta isn’t the biggest problem on the team, but he’s the one problem that can be easily fixed by Mike D’Antoni and co. however unlikely that may be. 

The Pro's and Con's of Mike D'Antoni on the Lakers

After two days of preparations for the Phil Jackson reunion parade, with widespread reporting that he was the overwhelming favorite to replace Mike Brown, in came Mike D'Antoni. The notion of anyone but Jackson taking over this star-studded roster received scoffs from the Los Angeles Lakers community, and seemed extremely remote.

In the wake of Mike D’Antoni being hired by the Los Angeles Lakers, many Laker fans are extremely disappointed by the signing of the former Phoenix Suns coach. D’Antoni is a coach who, at first glance, looks like an odd choice by Los Angeles. If Phil Jackson’s asking price was indeed too high, why not take a little bit longer in your search for a coach (especially with D’Antoni not being able to join the team immediately because of knee replacement surgery) and really take a hard look at Jackson’s former assistant (and known user of the Triangle offense) Brian Shaw or defensive minded, but not one dimensional Nate McMillan? At the very least, give legendary former Utah Jazz coach Jerry Sloan an opportunity to meet with Mitch Kupchak and then make your decision in a manner that doesn’t look rushed. Ultimately, Mitch decided the sooner the better, and pulled the trigger on a 3 year deal with an option for the 4^th year.

While D'Antoni has about as much post season success as Mike Brown does, in other words falling short of the Larry O’Brien trophy his whole career, he is innovative and bold in ways that Brown was never known to be. His vaunted seven-seconds-or-less offense led to a 232-96 regular season mark (70.7%) from 2005 to 2008 as the Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire-led Suns fell in two Western Conference Finals, a semifinal and a quarterfinal. His three seasons in New York (103-143 record, swept in his only playoff appearance) were extremely disappointing but I do not see this as deficiency from his part since he was given a patched together roster of players who could never and will never fit with each other. In other words, New York surrounded him with a dysfunctional team and a mismatched roster that hardly ever fit his point guard-reliant system.

I’m not sold on D’Antoni. At first glance, his offense system doesn’t seem to fit with the large amount of veteran players on the court, although he did work with Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant in the 2008 Olympic Games as an assistant coach, and again with Bryant this past summer.  His system in Phoenix was so successful because the personnel he had with those teams were perfect for it; of course, I expect Steve Nash to thrive once again with D’Antoni, but the rest of the team is truly a question mark, save for Howard. D’Antoni’s system is a mesh of the pick and roll combined with pushing the tempo to the maximum and looking a shot before the defense has a chance to set. Howard and Nash running the pick and roll should be a devastating duo, no doubt about it; however the rest of the team isn’t poised to be sprinting all game long. In Phoenix, D’Antoni had speed demons and three point specialists, something the Lakers have lacked since the days of Magic Johnson. The mid 2000’s Suns had prototypical “stretch-4’s”; Power Forwards with speed and/or mobility and outside shooting ability. The Lakers have Pau Gasol, who has excellent mobility for a 7 footer, but his shot only extends to about 17 feet and that’s pushing it. Meanwhile, Antawn Jamison has excellent shooting range, but he lacks the speed to truly run with Nash.

Still, this is the least of my worries when it comes to D’Antoni’s coaching philosophy; what I’m truly concerned about is D’Antoni’s complete lack of defensive coaching. D’Antoni’s philosophy is to simply outscore the opponent, defense or not. A sound strategy if you have a team full of Leandro Barbosas and Steve Nashes, players who lack defensive ability, but this team has 3 time Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard, 12 time All-Defensive team member Kobe Bryant, and one time Defensive Player of the Year Metta World Peace, obviously this team is worlds different from the mid-2000’s Suns. This, coupled with personnel that doesn’t quite fit his offensive system, is why I believe D’Antoni will work with Bryant, Gasol and Nash to tweak his system to fit the style of play of his star players; this is what any good coach would do, and I truly believe D’Antoni is a very good coach.

The obvious dilemma lies in the players Los Angeles has, however I believe that D’Antoni will likely make his offense into a primarily pick and roll based offense, while adding some isolations in the post for Gasol, Bryant and Howard.

It certainly appears that Mitch was attempting to create something similar to the Showtime Magic Johnson Lakers, with minimal defense and a spectacular transitional offense leading to multiple championships and the consistently leading the league in points scored. And while certainly a spectacular style of play, this type of offense hasn’t had much success in the NBA since those Magic-led Lakers were running teams off of the court.

I seriously doubt we see the Phoenix Suns version 2.0, the players simply don’t fit into that style of play, but I do expect to see something between what the Lakers are now and what the Suns were then; an improved offense once Nash makes his way back to the court, as well as a major improvement from the bench since it appears running a simplified offense with one star player on the court has done wonders for the second unit under Bernie Bickerstaff (the bench has averaged 29.5 points per game without the Princeton Offense), but enough defense from Bryant, World Peace, Howard and Gasol to be ranked about 10^th in total defense. That sounds wonderful on paper, but can the Lakers make the transition? We will find out soon enough, for now Los Angeles must focus on the San Antonio Spurs tonight with Bernie Bickerstaff still coaching until D’Antoni can report to practice.

Steve Blake will not play in tonight’s game against the Spurs (6-1) with an abdominal sprain. He is listed as day-to-day. A few interesting stats for tonight’s game: the Lakers and Spurs are nearly identical when it comes to points per game (98.6 PPG for Los Angeles, 98.4 for San Antonio) as well as average points allowed (94.4 for L.A, 94.1 for San Antonio), yet their records are vastly different, as the Spurs have jumped out to an extremely good start.

Starting Lineups:

Position	Spurs	Lakers
Point Guard	Tony Parker	Darius Morris
Shooting Guard	Danny Green	Kobe Bryant
Small Forward	Kawhi Leonard	Metta World Peace
Power Forward	Tim Duncan	Pau Gasol
Center	Boris Diaw	Dwight Howard

Lakers Dominate Pistons, Win 108-79

On Steve Nash’s first missed game since an MRI revealed a small fracture in his leg, the Los Angeles Lakers put it all together in what was an incredibly synchronized performance from just about everybody on the team. The Princeton Offense was run perfectly by Steve Blake, as he finished with 6 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds. The starters shot a terrific 58.1% from the floor, with Howard completely dominating Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond to the tune of 28 points, seven rebounds and three blocks. Of the 32 baskets from the starting unit, 20 of them were assisted on, the majority coming from Kobe Bryant and his stellar 15 point, 8 assist, 7 rebound night. Steve Blake harassed opposing point guard Brandon Knight into 5 turnovers.

Metta World Peace looked somewhat confused in between his flashes of brilliance tonight; he had two turnovers and looked somewhat lost to start the game, but he rebounded and finished with a stellar 7-11 shooting from the floor and 18 total points, more proof that every single thing was going right for Los Angeles tonight. The Lakers, for the first time in the season, had less turnovers than their opponents, and while the final margin is very slim (17 T.O. for Detroit, 15 for LAL), the starters completely out played, out hustled, and out smarted their opponents tonight. It helps, of course, when the whole Laker team shoots 51% from the floor (thank you, Princeton Offense!). It also helps to have nearly double the points scored in the paint than the opponent (34 for Det, 56 for L.A.) Los Angeles finally played up their ability, and gave Howard the Shaquille O’Neal treatment for tonight, making him the No. 1 option offensively despite having Kobe Bryant on the same team. Howard, of course, delivered tonight, being extremely efficient offensively, hitting 12-14 shots from the floor, and staying out of foul trouble, which is something he had failed to do in the first three games. Overall, Los Angeles completely dominated Detroit from tip off by playing smart, selfless basketball, playing excellent defense, and limiting the turnovers when the game really mattered. This is the Lakers we all expected in game one, and if they can play as smart as tonight, the rest of the league has some long nights of scouting ahead of them. 

Report: Steve Nash is Out for at Least One Week With Leg Fracture

Los Angeles could be in trouble for at least another week or so.

It has been reported that Lakers’ point guard Steve Nash has a small fracture in what was previously thought to be simply a leg contusion in his left leg. The Lakers have had enough troubles to start the season, but with Nash being out for what appears to be at least a week, the Lakers woe’s look like they will continue. Of course, Steve Blake has been a perfectly adequate point guard in substitution of Nash so far this season, limiting his turnovers, hitting his three point shots (60% on the season), and keeping the Princeton Offense running smoothly around Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard. He had his struggles vs. Chris Paul and the Clippers (mainly foul trouble), but he rarely has negative plays for the team, and knows how to play with the starters.

The bench, however, has been the exact opposite, and without Blake leading the second unit, the Princeton Offense takes a hit with the second unit, as players like Antawn Jamison and Jordan Hill have looked absolutely lost in the pass and move nature of the offense. Other than turnovers and transitional defense, the biggest problem for Los Angeles has been the few quality minutes given by the bench, and as a result, the few minutes of rest the starters have had. Other than Steve Nash (who is only averaging 25 minutes a game), all of the starters are playing 35.7 minutes per game or more, with Pau Gasol topping the list at 39.7 minutes per game. It’s an insane amount of minutes for players who are old (Gasol and Metta World Peace are the youngest of the “old” starters at 32 years of age) or coming off of a major injury like Dwight Howard is. The bench has been the second worst unit this season averaging a measly 16 points per game on 41.9% shooting, the second worst offensive efficiency rating in the league at 19.3 and a negative defensive efficiency rating at -14.7. Despite acquiring Jodie Meeks and Jamison this off season, the bench has managed to be worse so far than the 2011-2012 Lakers bench.

Los Angeles is likely in trouble with Nash out for so long because of depth issues. On paper, the bench looks like a very solid group that can spread the floor and give the starters some rest. In reality, that bench is thin, and doesn’t seem to understand the nature of the Princeton Offense. Antawn Jamison, as stated earlier, continues to struggle as he is only averaging 3.7 points per game, 4 rebounds per game and is only playing 16 minutes per game. Jodie Meeks has hardly played or made a difference in his time in. Blake is being pushed into the starter role. Jordan Hill has been disappointing to say the least and Devin Ebanks has been a non-factor to start the season. If Nash is indeed out for a week longer, that will be 3, potentially 4, games in which Nash will not be available, and the bench will have to step up, something I think they won’t be able to accomplish this early in the season, playing in an offensive system that they don’t quite understand yet.

In the positive news for Los Angeles, the next four games will be vs. the 0-2 Detroit Pistons, 1-2 Utah Jazz (after two days of rest), 2-1 Golden State Warriors, who the Lakers (particularly Kobe Bryant) have had a history of playing well against, and the 0-3 Sacramento Kings. This is the stretch the Lakers can handle, on paper, without Nash in the rotation, and it will certainly test the 2^nd unit on whether they can insert themselves within this scheme head coach Mike Brown and assistant coach Eddie Jordan have placed over the summer. A visit from Detroit could help Los Angeles get back on track. Though the Lakers had their five-game winning streak against the Pistons end with an 88-85 overtime road loss on March 6^th of last season, they've won the last two at Staples Center by a combined 38 points. And in more positive news for L.A: Veteran guard Rodney Stuckey has totaled 10 points on 1-of-17 shooting and has missed all six of his 3-point attempts through two games.

Starting Lineups:

Position	Pistons	Lakers
Point Guard	Brandon Knight	Steve Blake
Shooting Guard	Rodney Stuckey	Kobe Bryant
Small Forward	Tayshaun Prince	Metta World Peace
Power Forward	Jason Maxiell	Pau Gasol
Center	Greg Monroe	Dwight Howard