Monday, December 16, 2013

It's Time For Our Annual Pau Gasol Trade Talk

Here we go again. Pau Gasol has officially unofficially hit the trade market this season, a bit earlier than years' past thanks to the apparent issues between the disgruntled big man and coach  Mike D'Antoni. We went over this last season, with big names like Josh Smith and Ryan Anderson coming up in trade rumors; the Lakers decided to stand pat, and it seemed like the right choice when Dwight Howard left via free agency. However, Gasol has gotten off to an atrocious start, averaging 14.4 points per game (the second lowest of his career), while having a WS/48 of .033 (lowest of his career) and a PER of 15.2 (another career low) while shooting only 41.8% from the floor (by far the lowest of his career) and looking thoroughly underwhelming on both ends of the floor. Gasol is somehow tied with Nick Young as the Lakers leaders in points per game, which also happens to be the second lowest points per game leader in the NBA, just ahead of Milwaukee (O.J. Mayo leads them with 13.9 points).

According to ESPN's Ramona Shelburne, the Lakers would prefer to keep Gasol on the team, but are open to trading the former All-Star. The combination of this being his final year under contract, his sub-par play and the recent comments he had about D'Antoni and the offensive system he runs could lead to a trade. According to "Sources" the Lakers have not yet made a trade offer to any team, or have discussed a potential deal with any potential suitor, but they are listening on any and all trade offers. As with any potential deal, there are obstacles to work around; Gasol will earn 19.3 million this season, which is an enormous cap hit even if it is for only the rest of this season. The Lakers have also indicated that they will not be taking on extra contracts, or any contracts that isn't an expiring contract. The Lakers are being very protective of their future cap space and would like to retain the ability to offer one max contract during next year's Free Agency, shutting the door on a bunch of potential trades.

There are a number of things to consider for any team interested in Gasol. For starters, how effective can Gasol be moving forward? He is 33 years old and coming off of his two worst seasons of his career. Is his decline system based, or is he simply too worn out to continue to produce at a high level? Remember, Gasol has a lot of mileage on his aging legs, between the deep playoff runs the Lakers have had in recent years and his extensive career with the Spanish National Team.

The Lakers will need to receive some size in any potential Gasol trade; if Gasol is traded, the only starter quality big man on the roster would be Jordan Hill and his extensive injury history. Chris Kaman is also available, but D'Antoni has basically refused to give him any minutes, favoring the fairly unproven Robert Sacre instead. And Ryan Kelly still exists, but he in no way can handle the Center position for anything other than a few minutes. With the Lakers trading away their 2015 and 2017 first round picks to Phoenix and Orlando, they will be looking to add draft picks in any Gasol trade. The only teams that would exchange a draft pick for Gasol would be playoff teams without a post presence. Realistically, the teams that might be interested in Gasol are the Boston Celtics, the Memphis Grizzlies and potentially the Charlotte Bobcats and Washington Wizards, though none of them really have any incentive to trade for Gasol at the moment. Of those teams, the Celtics might be able to make something work because of the draft picks they acquired by trading with the Brooklyn Nets.

Another potential factor is how Kobe Bryant feels about trading Gasol. They are close friends, and I'm sure Bryant would like to keep Gasol on the team for the rest of his career, but I also think Bryant is looking into the Lakers immediate future and knows that Gasol may not be the player to help the Lakers win a championship in the next two seasons.

A Gasol trade seems unlikely at the moment, but that could very easily change, depending on what direction the team takes in the upcoming weeks and what General Manager Mitch Kupchak wants to do once the team finds it's identity. Personally, I would prefer to trade him for first round draft picks and make the rebuilding process a little bit faster, but I would not be opposed to seeing Gasol on the Lakers for the rest of his career. Though I certainly hope that isn't the case.