Sunday, December 29, 2013

The Lakers Have Not Been Rebounding At All

I can't say the Lakers have been a disappointment this season; between all of the injuries to their best players and Mike D'Antoni's insistence on not placing Pau Gasol in a position where he can succeed, I think the Lakers are actually doing better than their preseason expectations. In fact, through 30 games, I expected something closer to 10 wins than 15 wins. The Lakers currently sit at 13-17 and are somehow only 4 games behind the Dallas Mavericks for the 8th seed in a brutal Western Conference, and it's not hard to see why: they aren't rebounding this year. Or scoring, or playing defense, but that's for another post entirely.

D'Antoni, has insisted on playing smaller ball lineups, often times having Wesley Johnson and Shawne Williams split time at power forward, which would be fine if Williams wasn't such a bad player. And if you think I'm being harsh on Williams, an 8.6 PER says otherwise. The Lakers are currently 14th in rebounding, averaging 42.7 rebounds per game, a far cry from last season, when they were ranked 4th with 45 rebounds per game. Of course, it doesn't help that last years' rebounding leader, Dwight Howard, went to Houston; for as much hate as Howard received for his free throw shooting and limited low post moves, he was still an elite rebounder and defensive player. These numbers aren't much of a problem; being ranked 14th isn't the worst thing in the world, however the Lakers have been giving up an astronomical amount of opponent rebounds, giving up 47.7 rebounds per game, good for 29th. This becomes an even bigger problem when you take into account the Lakers defensive rebound woes; they are giving up the 2nd most offensive rebounds in the league with a whopping 12.8 per game. It's no wonder the Lakers are giving up averages of 47.5 points in the paint (28th) and 14.7 second chance points (27th). And, in case you missed it, the Lakers lost to the Jazz on Friday by giving up an offensive rebound and put back to Derrick Favors.

More often than not, teams will need to rebound to be successful; it's no coincidence the league's top teams also tend to be in the Top 10 in rebounding. There are exceptions, of course, like the 8-21 Philadelphia 76ers being 7th in rebounds, or the defending champion (and 23-7) Miami Heat being dead last in rebounds with 36.5 (!) per game. You can get away with not rebounding when you have LeBron James on your team. The Lakers do not have a player who can bail them out and will have to wait for another while until the return of Kobe Bryant to see whether or not he can still be that player. In the meantime, the Lakers absolutely need to make use of their fundamentals; you can't commit mistake after mistake and expect to win with this roster, especially when you have Bryant and Steve Blake on the shelf for 6 more weeks, Steve Nash out indefinitely and Pau Gasol dealing with an upper respiratory infection.

What can the Lakers do? For starters, play Jordan Hill more than 20 minutes a game. Hill averages 13.6 rebounds per 36 minutes and is ranked 17th in PER with an astonishing 22.06 PER. Hill currently ranks ahead of Blake Griffin, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Tim Duncan, and John Wall in PER, just to name a few. Hill is up to a .207 WS/48, which is crossing into elite territory; for reference, Dwight Howard and DeMarcus Cousins are largely considered the NBA's two best centers and they don't measure up to Hill's WS/48; Howard has a .183 WS/48 and Cousins has a .163 WS/48. Obviously, these two players are completely different to Hill, who has a limited offensive skill set, but does convert 58.5% of his shots and rarely takes a bad shot. Cousins and Howard can be counted on to consistently score in the low post, while Hill is a bit of a wild card, sometimes looking very good and sometimes having some cringe worthy moments. Nonetheless, Hill is an elite rebounding presence and would help the team's rebounding woes almost immediately.

D'Antoni can also consider benching Shawne Williams and going with a bigger lineup with Chris Kaman and Ryan Kelly. Kaman is averaging over 11 rebounds per 36 minutes and gives the Lakers some size they have sorely lacked. Kelly isn't all that good of a rebounder, the stretch 4 out of Duke can shoot the lights out from beyond the arch, however and stands at 6'11''. Both of them provide more value than Williams, who is only making 31% of his three point attempts, which is kind of the only reason he's supposed to be out there. The Lakers can't be fixed in one day; this roster is a mess between the injuries and D'Antoni's coaching philosophy going against his best players' abilities, but they do have the personnel to help diminish those problems and make them more competitive. I only hope D'Antoni can tweak his coaching style around his players, otherwise, this is going to be the worst season in recent Lakers' history.

Friday, December 27, 2013

Game-Time Chat: Lakers @ Jazz

First and foremost, let's applaud the Lakers' effort against the Miami Heat. The Lakers played with energy and poise in the Christmas day loss to the defending champions and they managed to hold the NBA's best player, LeBron James, to 19 points and 8 rebounds, however, they couldn't contain Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh, who both finished with 23 points. Wade, in particular, carved through the Lakers defense, shooting 11-17 and racking up 7 assists and 6 rebounds.

The Lakers still couldn't close Miami out, despite Nick Young's 20 points (including 17 points in the second half) and now we move on to Utah. The Lakers will travel to Utah to face the young and very rough-around-the-edges Jazz. They may be 8-23, but that does not mean they should be taken lightly, as they have the talented and versatile Gordon Hayward, one of the Western Conference's front runners for Rookie of the Year in Trey Burke and a duo of young, high potential big men in Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. The Jazz have talent in their starting lineup, however their bench is lacking, led by Alec Burks, who for some reason, doesn't start over the reanimated corpse of Richard Jefferson, and by Marvin Williams, who was part of the early poster of the year (thanks, J.J. Hickson!).


The Jazz are one the worst offensive team in the league, ranking in at 25th in Offensive Rating at 100.9, and are the very worst defensive team in the league, being dead last in Defensive Rating at 110.5. Obviously, the Lakers will look to exploit that horrid Utah defense with pick and rolls and Nick Young isolations. The Lakers should look to jump out ahead early and not let themselves get lazy on the defensive end; the Jazz are still an NBA team and will take advantage of any mental mistakes on the Lakers' part. Los Angeles can't give the Jazz free chances; they need to take care of the ball and finish off defensive possessions by rebounding as much as possible. Limiting offensive rebounds and contesting three pointers will make this game difficult for Utah. Hopefully, the Lakers can continue their energetic play and not take any unnecessary risks against an inferior opponent.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

The Lakers 2nd Half Woes Have Been Problematic

We've been there before; the Lakers start the game well, usually leading by close to 10 points after the first quarter, only to have the lead cut in half by the half. The Lakers come out of the locker room looking lethargic, slow and lazy, often times giving up the lead in the 3rd quarter and playing catch up for the rest of the game. The Lakers problems then become even bigger when the ball stops moving and sticks to Kobe Bryant's or Nick Young's hands in an attempt to cut the deficit.

2013-2014:


As you can see, the 3rd quarter has been a major problem for the team, scoring the least amount of points in a game with only 22.7 points and shooting the lowest percentage from the floor (41.6%), while also having the worst +/- in a game with -2.2. The Lakers assist numbers are also at it's worse in the 4th quarter, though I am struggling to find a plausible reason because Kobe Bryant has only played in 6 games this season and has been a willing passer to start the year.  Is this a coaching problem? Does the team come out of half-time flat and tired under Run N' Gun coach Mike D'Antoni? Here's the data for the past four seasons:

2012-2013:

2011-2012:

2010-2011:

2009-2010:

I know those are a bit hard to read, but the data tells me it isn't a coaching thing; the Lakers have struggled in the 3rd nearly every season and it's kind of a mystery because the same unit that jumps out at the beginning of the game in the first quarter, also plays the 3rd quarter. We can also see how awful the bench was after trading Lamar Odom; the two worst 2nd quarters came in the two seasons after Odom's trade. A noticeable trend that forms in the 3rd quarter is the decline in 3 point percentage and the decline in assists; every single year, the Lakers average less assists per 3rd quarter than in the first two quarters, setting up a huge fall in this category for the fourth quarter, where the Lakers usually average their least amount, consistently less than 5. Compared to the team averaging over 6 assists for the first quarter every year, this is a massive drop off.  Combined with less assists, there is not a major decline in turnovers, while simultaneously showing a decrease in steals and blocks.

So if it isn't D'Antoni's fault, then what is it? For one, the Lakers have historically relied on the brilliance of Kobe Bryant to help try and close out the game, often times letting Bryant run isolations at the top of the key or in the post. While Bryant is very effective in this role, it also leaves the rest of the team standing and watching, which was a notorious problem during the mid 2000's, as the team would stand around and watch "The Kobe Bryant Show". While this did lead to some spectacular individual seasons from Bryant, including the highest scoring average since Michael Jordan's 37.1 points per game in 1986-87 with 35.4 points per game, it also led to some very frustrating losses, as the Lakers off-ball movement would stop almost entirely.

During the past few seasons, "The Kobe Bryant Show" hasn't been on full display, as Bryant has made an effort to get everybody involved and would only try to take over the game whenever necessary, or in crunch time, which would explain the Lakers lack of assists in the 4th quarter. However, when Bryant starts to play in this way, the team will still not move well without the ball and, should they get the ball during this time, they'll often hoist up a bad, contested shot because they feel like they won't have another chance to get the ball. In years past, this wasn't as big of a problem, because Bryant was the best scorer since Jordan, and he could put the team over the top when he needed, but now, with Bryant out with a fractured knee (and before that, a torn Achilles), the Lakers have been trying to play "Hero Ball" with the assortment of misfits they signed this off season, namely Nick Young. This isn't anywhere near as effective, because Bryant is still a brilliant playmaker at times, while Young is almost strictly a scorer. It makes the offense extremely predictable and it makes beating good teams a lot harder than it should be.

This is a problem that will persist until the Lakers completely change their mind-sets in the 4th quarter, or until they get a more effective No. 1 option than the 35-year old Bryant. It may be a few years until we see see better 4th quarters out of this team; hopefully, it'll happen if the Kevin Love rumors come true.

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Game-Time Chat: Merry Christmas from the Staples Center! Heat @ Lakers

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from Hack-a-Shaq! Here's hoping everybody enjoyed their holiday. 

The last couple of games haven't been fun at all. The Lakers have looked awful against the Warriors and the Suns, getting beaten down by an average margin of 23 points and looking like the worst team in the league while doing it. That doesn't bode well for the Lakers with the defending champions Miami Heat coming to town today for the Christmas day match up.

The Heat come into this match up with a 21-6 record and are one of the very best offensive teams the league has to offer, owning an offensive rating of 111.4, good for second in the NBA, while still being ranked 8th in the league in defensive rating with 103.2. Miami is scary, as they have the reigning league MVP (and the NBA's best player) in LeBron James. Miami is a team that likes to run, run and run and they will pressure the Lakers into their fair share of turnovers. The Heat aren't the biggest team in the league and struggle with rebounding, being ranked 30th (dead last) in total rebounding, but they are a team that passes the ball well, being 6th in assists, and shoots well from deep, shooting 38.1%, good for 8th in the league.

For the Lakers to have a chance at stealing this game, they need to take care of the ball and take advantage of their size advantage; feed the ball down low early and often and create space by hitting their open three point shots. On defense, the Lakers need to make it tough for Miami; limit the amount of open shots the Heat have and contest any and all lay ups. The Lakers need to help on LeBron James and rotate to the open man, while strategically sagging off of Dwyane Wade from three point land, as he is a poor three point shooter and has only taken 79 three point attempts in the past two seasons, making 21 of them. The good news for the Lakers? Jordan Farmar is cleared to play and will start tonight.

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Game-Time Chat: Lakers @ Warriors

Well, yesterday was, for lack of a better word, amazing. The Lakers defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves and had a lot of fun doing it. There was a little bit of everything, including a Chris Kaman sighting (!) who had huge block on Corey Brewer that led to a Wesley Johnson fast break dunk. There was Xavier Henry doing great things on offense and creating fast breaks on defense. There was some vintage Pau Gasol action last night, finishing two assists shy of a triple-double. And then there was Nick Young. "The Swag Mamba", as ESPN called him last night, had an enormous game with 25 points and 4 assists off the bench, continuing his run of excellent play as he has scored in double digits in 12 straight games, dating back to the November 26th game against the Washington Wizards. Young was showing an excellent repertoire last night, hitting close shots, mid range shots and long three pointers and even showed a bit of a post game. His energy completely infected the rest of his teammates as everybody was moving the ball and playing hard on defense. The team was so fired up, that Gasol did the Nick Young Three Point Celebration after he hit a three pointer (!!) late in the 4th:


Now, the Lakers have to focus on the Golden State Warriors, who have split the season series against the Lakers, completely dominating Los Angeles during a 125-94 win at Oracle Arena back in October, and dropping the second game in the series 102-95 at Staples Center. The Warriors are one of the most explosive offensive teams around, and are one of the best shooting teams in the league. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson (son of former Laker Mychal Thompson) are known as the "Splash Bros." for a reason; they are both shooting over 41% from three and they are both averaging over 19 points per game. Curry is at a ridiculous 24.5 points and 9.3 assists per game, but he also leads the league in turnovers with 101 total (4.2 per game). The Warriors have been terrible at protecting the ball, averaging 17.3 turnovers per game being ranked 28th in the league.

Golden State will have Andre Iguodala for tonight's contest, who might be their best playmaker because of his athleticism and strength that go perfectly with his 6'6'' frame. Iguodala is an able passer and a good scorer when the team needs him to be; he's the Warriors most dynamic player because he's also a very good defensive player, often times covering the other team's best player. And the Warriors have also have Andrew Bogut protecting the rim, so if the Lakers want to be successful tonight, they need to move the ball.

Golden State also has a solid offensive low post presence with David Lee, who is averaging 17.8 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. The Lakers must be very careful with Lee, as he possesses a very good mid-range game to go along with his very good post game; expect the Warriors to win the rebound battle with Bogut and Lee overpowering the Lakers smaller front line. The Lakers need to pressure Curry and try to force in play turnovers, but at the same time, they need to be careful of when they choose to gamble for a steal as Curry and Thompson simply do not miss when left open. The team will need to be come out with energy and close out on all of the Warriors' shooters, while still trying to help down low on David Lee. Trying to stop the Warriors is an extremely tough task for any team; the Lakers will need to be on their guard throughout the game.

UPDATE: Pau Gasol will miss tonight's contest with an upper respiratory infection. This game just got a whole lot tougher for the Lakers.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Game-Time Chat: Timberwolves @ Lakers

The Lakers were devastated yesterday with the sad news that Kobe Bryant is out for 6 weeks (possibly longer). The injuries have completely mounted up for the Lakers, forcing them to sign former Tar Heel Kendall Marshall and try to salvage yet another talented, but struggling former lottery pick. As it is, the Lakers have Marshall as the only active point guard; Jodie Meeks will slide back into the starting line up at shooting guard and the Lakers will probably have to play Shawne Williams at small forward, while giving playing time to Mike D'Antoni's choice of Chris Kaman or Ryan Kelly to slot along side of Robert Sacre in the low post.

It's a bad situation for a struggling team, though the positive news is a higher draft pick in this upcoming, very talented draft. Nonetheless, the Lakers must prepare tonight for the Timberwolves, who have the league's best power forward in Kevin Love. Love has a ridiculous line of 25.2 points, a league-leading 13.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game, and has a sky-high 27.3 PER. He's a handful, as he brings astonishing versatility out of a big man, being able to hit the three point shot at a high clip (38.7%), while still having one of the most refined post games in the NBA. Minnesota also has one of the strongest centers in the league in the bruising Nikola Pekovic, who has one of the better post games in the league and sports averages of 16.6 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, effectively making him and Love the best big man duo in the league.

On the perimeter, the Timberwolves have Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio running the show; Rubio is an excellent passer and will give pin point passes in tight spaces, so the Lakers need to be aware of his teammates at all times, and limit the amount of dribble penetration Rubio generates. Rubio is a poor outside shooter, so the Lakers should look to sag off of Rubio, while sticking tight to his teammates. Newest addition Kevin Martin has been a revelation for them, as he is shooting the lights out, averaging over 20 points per game with a 40% three point percentage. The Lakers will need to close out on him and force him to dribble into traffic and make bad decisions.

Overall, the Lakers will have to try to out-gun one of the better offensive teams in the NBA; they will need to play solid defense, force turnovers and convert them into points. Minnesota averages a shade over 14 turnovers, so the Lakers will need to be on their game defensively. On offense, three point shooting will be the key to this game; if the Lakers can hit a few shots from out there, it should give Pau Gasol ample space to work on Love or Pekovic. Minnesota may be one of the top offensive teams out there, but there's a reason why they are only 13-13 and that is poor defensive execution. Look for L.A. to move the ball well and to run pick and rolls whenever possible.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Report: The Lakers Sign Point Guard Kendall Marshall

It only took Kobe Bryant sustaining a fractured left knee, but Mitch Kupchak finally went out and signed a point guard the team desperately needed, with all three point guards, and Bryant (once again) out with serious injuries. After the Bulls signed D.J. Augustin six days ago, the point guard market looked bleak, with options ranging from former Suns' guard coming off of a major injury Leandro Barbosa and former All-Star (and gun slinger) Gilbert Arenas to old and broken Baron Davis and Mike Bibby.

Bryant, who is expected to miss six weeks with this latest injury, will not require surgery, and this does leave the Lakers dangerously thin at both of the guard positions, as Xavier Henry was the only player who can handle extended periods at the point guard position. Jodie Meeks is set to start once again, and Wesley Johnson can also play shooting guard, though he will have to give up some minutes at power forward to do so. And, of course, Kobe Bryant wouldn't be Kobe Bryant if he didn't continue playing and close out the game in Memphis after sustaining the injury mid way through the 4th quarter.

Marshall was with the D-League's Delaware 87ers (an affiliate of the 76ers), and he was averaging 19.4 points per game and 9.6 assists per game in 37 minutes of game time. The deal is not guaranteed and expect the Lakers to keep their eye on another potential addition, should someone else go down. And, in case you were wondering, Steve Nash is no where near being able to return soon; the future Hall-of-Famer was re-evaluated today and is expected to miss 4 or more weeks with his nerve root irritation. Bad news all around for the Lakers.

I am happy that Marshall is getting another shot; he was picked 13th overall in the 2012 NBA draft, being College Basketball's best point guard prospect of the draft, only to get traded the next season to Washington (along side Marcin Gortat). Marshall was waived days later and was signed by the 87ers a few weeks ago. Hopefully, he can develop some more. Marshall is something of a Rajon Rondo type; good at ball handling and distributing, but he can't shoot very well, only shooting 57% from the free throw line with the Suns, though he did show a solid outside stroke, hitting 3 pointers at a 37% clip. At 6'4'', Marshall can play either of the guard positions, though he is more of a natural point guard.  It's time for the Lakers to hold the fort down until number 24 can recover.


Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Game-time Chat: Lakers @ Grizzlies

One of the bigger surprises this year has been Memphis, who have played to a disappointing 10-13 record,
good for 13th in the Western Conference. These are the same Grizzlies that made the Western Conference Finals last year, so to see them near the bottom of the Conference is definitely a surprise, even if it's mostly because of Marc Gasol's fairly serious injury. And, of course, Memphis would be the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference because the East is awful.

Memphis' underwhelming start does not mean they aren't dangerous; despite not having the reigning Defensive Player of the Year available, they seem to still be solid enough on defense to be ranked 7th in points allowed per game with 97.4 points per game. Their pace, however, is the lowest in the league at 89.8, which means the opposing team does not get as many possessions, helping them limit the amount of points they allow. Their defense, in reality, has been below average without Marc Gasol on the floor, as they are ranked 24th in Defensive Rating with an underwhelming 107.5.

Offensively, Zach Randolph has continued to bruise his way to the basket in the low-post, averaging 16 points per game, but his efficiency has taken a dip without Marc Gasol on the floor; he's shooting 46% and his PER is at 16.4, down from last season's 17.9. The Grizzlies are not a top perimeter team, shooting only 34% from beyond the arc, good for 20th in the NBA. Despite that, Tony Allen has looked good on offense this year, averaging 10 points on 52.5% shooting; good for an 18.1 PER, while still being one of the top perimeter defensive players in the league. And, of course, the Grizzlies have one of the top Point Guards in Mike Conley, who could miss tonight's contest. Conley is averaging 18.2 points and 6.3 assists, with a 21.5 PER, cementing him as one of the top Point Guards in the West.

The Lakers need to be prepared for a tough, grind-it-out game, as Memphis will look to slow down the pace and make the Lakers beat them in the half court set. Memphis does not turn the ball over very often, averaging only 13.9 giveaways per game, good for 4th best in the NBA. The Lakers will need to protect the ball, sink their open jumpers and move the ball around the court to have success on offense. Defensively, they need to lock down the paint and secure as many rebounds as possible. It's a tough match up for both teams, but without Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies may not have enough to beat L.A. this time around.

Monday, December 16, 2013

It's Time For Our Annual Pau Gasol Trade Talk

Here we go again. Pau Gasol has officially unofficially hit the trade market this season, a bit earlier than years' past thanks to the apparent issues between the disgruntled big man and coach  Mike D'Antoni. We went over this last season, with big names like Josh Smith and Ryan Anderson coming up in trade rumors; the Lakers decided to stand pat, and it seemed like the right choice when Dwight Howard left via free agency. However, Gasol has gotten off to an atrocious start, averaging 14.4 points per game (the second lowest of his career), while having a WS/48 of .033 (lowest of his career) and a PER of 15.2 (another career low) while shooting only 41.8% from the floor (by far the lowest of his career) and looking thoroughly underwhelming on both ends of the floor. Gasol is somehow tied with Nick Young as the Lakers leaders in points per game, which also happens to be the second lowest points per game leader in the NBA, just ahead of Milwaukee (O.J. Mayo leads them with 13.9 points).

According to ESPN's Ramona Shelburne, the Lakers would prefer to keep Gasol on the team, but are open to trading the former All-Star. The combination of this being his final year under contract, his sub-par play and the recent comments he had about D'Antoni and the offensive system he runs could lead to a trade. According to "Sources" the Lakers have not yet made a trade offer to any team, or have discussed a potential deal with any potential suitor, but they are listening on any and all trade offers. As with any potential deal, there are obstacles to work around; Gasol will earn 19.3 million this season, which is an enormous cap hit even if it is for only the rest of this season. The Lakers have also indicated that they will not be taking on extra contracts, or any contracts that isn't an expiring contract. The Lakers are being very protective of their future cap space and would like to retain the ability to offer one max contract during next year's Free Agency, shutting the door on a bunch of potential trades.

There are a number of things to consider for any team interested in Gasol. For starters, how effective can Gasol be moving forward? He is 33 years old and coming off of his two worst seasons of his career. Is his decline system based, or is he simply too worn out to continue to produce at a high level? Remember, Gasol has a lot of mileage on his aging legs, between the deep playoff runs the Lakers have had in recent years and his extensive career with the Spanish National Team.

The Lakers will need to receive some size in any potential Gasol trade; if Gasol is traded, the only starter quality big man on the roster would be Jordan Hill and his extensive injury history. Chris Kaman is also available, but D'Antoni has basically refused to give him any minutes, favoring the fairly unproven Robert Sacre instead. And Ryan Kelly still exists, but he in no way can handle the Center position for anything other than a few minutes. With the Lakers trading away their 2015 and 2017 first round picks to Phoenix and Orlando, they will be looking to add draft picks in any Gasol trade. The only teams that would exchange a draft pick for Gasol would be playoff teams without a post presence. Realistically, the teams that might be interested in Gasol are the Boston Celtics, the Memphis Grizzlies and potentially the Charlotte Bobcats and Washington Wizards, though none of them really have any incentive to trade for Gasol at the moment. Of those teams, the Celtics might be able to make something work because of the draft picks they acquired by trading with the Brooklyn Nets.

Another potential factor is how Kobe Bryant feels about trading Gasol. They are close friends, and I'm sure Bryant would like to keep Gasol on the team for the rest of his career, but I also think Bryant is looking into the Lakers immediate future and knows that Gasol may not be the player to help the Lakers win a championship in the next two seasons.

A Gasol trade seems unlikely at the moment, but that could very easily change, depending on what direction the team takes in the upcoming weeks and what General Manager Mitch Kupchak wants to do once the team finds it's identity. Personally, I would prefer to trade him for first round draft picks and make the rebuilding process a little bit faster, but I would not be opposed to seeing Gasol on the Lakers for the rest of his career. Though I certainly hope that isn't the case.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Wesley Johnson Has Been Unexpectedly Awesome

To say that Wesley Johnson's career up to this point has been a disappointment is an understatement.  Johnson was the fourth overall pick in the 2010 NBA draft, taken before DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe, Gordon Hayward and Paul George, and expectations were high in Minnesota. Johnson started off badly in his rookie season, being worth a 10.2 PER and only contributing to 1.3 Win Shares while shooting 39% from the floor. He somehow was even worse in his sophomore season, as he dropped his PER to a horrid 8.0 and was barely worth 0.6 Win Shares, while somehow being worth a -0.4 OWS. Minnesota cut their losses after his second season and he was traded to the Phoenix Suns, where he was inexplicably even worse. Johnson contributed to 0 Wins for Phoenix in his 50 games played. It's safe to say the Lakers didn't have the highest expectations when they picked up the 25 year-old Small Forward with the veteran's minimum this off season.

And yet, here we are, talking about how good Johnson has been under Mike D'Antoni and his run and gun system. D'Antoni moved Johnson from Small Forward to Power Forward, while still running him at Small Forward in bigger line ups; it's a role in which Johnson has thrived, as he has improved his three point shooting considerably (44.8% compared to his career 34.7%) and has stretched the floor well for the Lakers. Johnson is taking smarter shots, playing to his strengths and playing completely within the offense. It's so rare to see a player come in and pick up a whole new offense in the span of 3-5 months, but that's exactly what Johnson has done.  

Although Johnson is scoring at a similar rate to his career average (8.2 to his career 7.8), he has done so with a career high 43.7% from the floor, including that sky high three point percentage, and has increased his rebounds (3.5), assists (1.3), steals (1.2) and blocks (1.5), all while playing some inspiring man-to-man defense. It's no wonder Johnson is setting career highs in PER (13.0), True Shooting Percentage (54.9%), WS/48 (.087), and currently has his second-highest Win Share total with 0.9 in just 21 games. The only knock on Johnson right now is his massive spike in personal fouls per game; he's averaging 3.0 per game, compared to last year's 1.0. It's something we should have expected, given his change of position into the low-post. It's also something we can live with when you consider the pretty big increase in blocks.

Johnson's sheer athleticism has been something the Lakers have been missing since 2010, and it has been unbelievably fun watching him do all sorts of impossibly athletic things. He has been one of the main reason's the Lakers have the best 2nd unit in the league; his long wingspan help him generate steals and his incredible jumping all but ensure he swats his fair share of shots, which usually lead to Lakers fast breaks. If Johnson isn't creating the turnover, he's using his speed and jumping ability to finish off fast breaks. And boy has he been blocking shots:
That's 6'11'' Pero Antic, getting swatted by the 6'7'' Johnson
His head almost hits the backboard. Unreal.
Johnson has really helped spark the Lakers to an unexpected 10-9 start without Kobe Bryant and has continued the Lakers recent trend of "fixing" former first round draft choices and turning them into productive role players. I only hope he sticks around a bit longer than Shannon Brown or Earl Clark and continues to grow as a player. Right now, Johnson is executing the Bruce Bowen model of play perfectly, but I do hope his skills increase in his time here, though it is nice to finally have a defensive specialist who can hit the three ball at a high percentage (no offense, Metta World Peace). For now, we can only question whether or not he can continue shooting over 40% from deep, because the effort, athleticism and defense have been there, and it's been spectacular. And so too, have the dunks. 

This is how you run a fast break. 

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Around the NBA: December 12th, 2013

Paul George and Kevin Durant named players of the month.

Paul George of the Indiana Pacers and Kevin Durant of the Oklahoma City Thunder have won the NBA's Player of the Month award for their respective conferences. George averaged 23 points and 6.1 rebounds on 47% shooting from the floor and 40% shooting from deep on the month. He currently leads the NBA in DWS with 1.9, as he continues his absolutely stellar defensive play from last season, in which he also led the league in DWS. George has accumulated 4.4 total Win Shares this season, leading the Pacers to a league-best 19-3 record and has emerged to be the favorite to take home the MVP this year.

Durant averaged 27 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists in the month of November for the 16-4 Thunder, while shooting a 47.5% and 37% from 3 point range. Durant is tied with George with 4.4 total Win Shares, but they get them from opposite sides of the ball; Durant is worth a stellar 3.1 OWS and "only" a 1.3 DWS. He has taken a larger offensive responsibility from years' past, as Durant is now distributing the ball on top of scoring; his assists per game are at 5 for the year, the highest in his career.

Michael Carter-Williams and Ben McLemore named Rookies of the Month

Carter-Williams has been simply phenomenal for the 76ers and has emerged as the front-runner for Rookie of the Year, averaging a surprising 17.7 points, 7.3 assists, 5.8 rebounds and is leading the league in steals with 3.1 per game. Despite an abysmal 40.8% shooting percentage from the floor, Carter-Williams has still managed to put up a PER of 19.1 and a solid .089 WS/48. Although the 76ers are only 7-16, Carter-Williams has shown off his massive potential to start the season.

McLemore hasn't been impressive at all, in my opinion; he has been as inefficient as they come, scoring 9.7 points on 9.3 shot attempts, which is just brutal. He's shooting 36.7% from the floor and has a well-below-average-PER of 10.8. The flashes have been there for McLemore, as he has displayed a solid shooting stroke at times, but he hasn't been making good decisions with the ball, averaging nearly as many turnovers as assists (0.9 turnovers to 1.1 assists) and has frequently taken ill-advised shot attempts. The Western Conference's rookie class has been weak compared to the Eastern Conference (The Magic's Victor Oladipo is right on Carter-Williams' heels for the Rookie of the Year), and there really isn't a strong candidate out there in the West, save for Utah's Trey Burke, but he has only played 12 games to McLemore's 20 games. I understand why McLemore won the award, but I would have given it to Burke. That's not to say Burke has been great, or even good, but he outperformed McLemore, mostly thanks to his passing ability and had a PER of 15.1, which is slightly above league average. It will be interesting to see if any other candidates emerge from the West, as the top-two candidates aren't looking like Rookie of the Year material.

Rudy Gay dealt to Sacramento

This one is an interesting move for both sides. The Kings traded Greivis Vasquez, John Salmons, Patrick Patterson and Chuck Hayes for the Raptors' Rudy Gay, Quincy Acy and Aaron Gray. This deal makes Sacramento more talented, as Gay has been seen as a good player for most of his career, but it does make the Kings bench a lot weaker as Isaiah Thomas has now been inserted into the starting lineup. Gay has struggled to start the year with Toronto, shooting only 38% to go with his 19.4 points per game; he's had his worse WS/48 of his career since his rookie season at .034 and has been worth a -0.4 OWS, which is awful for a player who is known for his offense. The Kings acquiring Gay may not be as good for them as they think; this makes the Kings a lot closer to mediocrity in a brutal Western Conference and hurts their chances at a Top-5 pick in what may be the most talented draft class since the 2003 draft class, which had LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony.

Kobe Bryant makes his return

Bryant returned to the Lakers line up on Sunday and looked awful; he only scored 9 points and had 8 turnovers in a Lakers loss to the Raptors. He admitted to being over his normal playing weight at 225 pounds (he is listed at 205 pounds on NBA.com). Bryant had a much better outing his second time around, leading the Lakers in scoring with 20 points on 6-11 shooting, but the Lakers still came up short against the Phoenix Suns. It is nice to have Bryant back, but it will take some time before he gets back to form and for the Lakers to get used to playing with him and vice versa.

UPDATE: Steve Blake diagnosed with a torn ligament

Blake had an MRI on his hyper extended elbow and it was revealed that he had torn ligaments in his elbow. Blake will be out at least 6 weeks and this leaves the Lakers without an active point guard until Jordan Farmar. The Lakers have stated that Mike D'Antoni will not be looking at another point guard until he sees how Kobe Bryant handles the starting point guard duties; Xavier Henry will continue to run the backup point guard duties. We discussed yesterday how the Lakers should look into another point guard and now seems like a good time to invest in somebody (D.J. Augustin should be ready for a phone call from his agent).

Standings: 


Eastern Conference Standings
Western Conference Standings
1. Indiana Pacers (19-3)
1. Portland Trailblazers (18-4)
2. Miami Heat (16-6)
2. San Antonio Spurs (17-4)
3. Atlanta Hawks (11-11)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (17-4)
4. Boston Celtics (10-14)
4.  Los Angeles Clippers (15-8)
5. Charlotte Bobcats (10-12)
5. Houston Rockets (15-7)
6. Washington Wizards (9-11)
6. Denver Nuggets (13-8)
7. Detroit Pistons (10-13)
7. Phoenix Suns (12-9)
8. Chicago Bulls (8-12)
8. Dallas Mavericks (13-10)
9. Cleveland Cavaliers (8-13)
9. Golden State Warriors (13-10)
10. Toronto Raptors (7-13)
10. New Orleans Pelicans (10-10)
11. Brooklyn Nets (7-14)
11. Minnesota Timberwolves (11-11)
12. Orlando Magic (7-15)
12. Los Angeles Lakers (10-11)
13. Philadelphia 76ers  (7-16)
13. Memphis Grizzlies (10-11)
14. New York Knicks (6-15)
14. Sacramento Kings (6-14)
15. Milwaukee Bucks (5-17)
15. Utah Jazz (5-19)



NBA Stats Leaders: 
Points per GameRebounds per GameAssists per GamePlayer Efficiency RatingWin SharesWin Shares per 48 minutesTrue Shooting Percentage
1. Kevin Durant - OKC: 28.41. Kevin Love-MIN 13.81. Chris PaulLAC: 11.91.LeBron James -MIA: 28.91.Kevin Durant - OKC: 4.61. Chris Paul - LAC:  .2781. Kyle Korver-ATL :
71.6%
2.Carmelo Anthony -NYK: 25.62. Dwight Howard - HOU: 13.22. John Wall - WAS: 9.12. Brook Lopez - BRK : 28.52. LeBron James - MIA: 4.52. LeBron James- MIA : .2752. Wesley Matthews -POR : 67.3%
3. LeBron James - MIA: 25.03. DeAndre Jordan-LAC
13.0
3. Stephen Curry - GSW: 8.93. Anthony Davis- NOP: 28.33. Chris Paul- LAC: 4.43. Kevin Durant - OKC : .2723. LeBron James-MIA:
67.2%
4.   Paul George - IND: 24.74. Andre Drummond -DET: 12.74. Ricky Rubio - MIN: 8.44. Kevin Durant - OKC: 27.44.  Paul George - IND: 4.44. Paul George - IND: .2584. Jodie Meeks-LAL: 64.8%
5. James Harden - HOU: 24.65. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC: 10.55. Ty Lawson - DEN: 8.45. Chris Paul - LAC: 27.05. Kevin Love - MIN: 3.85. Anthony Davis - NOP : .2505. Marco Belinelli - SAS: 64.6%

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Do The Lakers Need Another Point Guard?

The Lakers have been decimated by injuries at the point guard position and it doesn't look like it will get Jordan Farmar has a torn hamstring and is still a long ways from coming back, Steve Blake is currently playing with a hyper extended elbow, and worst of all, Steve Nash acknowledged on Sunday that his career might be over. Nash has had a troublesome 18 months with the Lakers, which started with a freak injury in Portland, as he broke his leg during a collision with Rookie-of-the-Year Damian Lillard.  Since then, he has dealt with hamstring and back injuries and has only played in 56 out of 102 total games with the Lakers.
better anytime soon.

So with Nash potentially never returning, Farmar being out for at least another 3-6 weeks and Blake not being entirely healthy, expect the Lakers to potentially pursue another point guard, via free agency or trade. But, who's realistically available?

1. Trade for Kyle Lowry.

Lowry's trade value is very tough to gauge. On one hand, he's most definitely a starting caliber point guard and would be a big upgrade for the Lakers. On the other hand, the Raptors initially acquired him by trading Gary Forbes and a 1st round pick. Seeing as how the Raptors have already traded Rudy Gay for spare parts and expiring contracts, and have indicated they may trade Lowry as well, it becomes clear Toronto is in full-tank mode, which could affect Lowry's trade value. The Lakers don't have much to trade, though Chris Kaman may be on the trading block now that Robert Sacre has taken his spot in the rotation. The Lakers can offer expiring contracts, a first round pick this year or a first round pick in 2016 or 2018, though I don't think those picks have very much value as of now. Judging by what the Raptors got for Gay, Lowry might be more affordable than initially anticipated.

2. Sign Rodrigue Beaubois

Beaubois isn't a very interesting option; he's a solid scorer and a solid defensive player. He's not too good of a shooter, indicated by his 29.3% shooting percentage from deep in the past 3 seasons, which would already limit his capacity to fit in Mike D'Antoni's system. Beaubois has only averaged 2.1 assists (4.6 per 36 minutes) so his distributing ability isn't very good for a point guard. Beaubois is also very injury prone, having only played 182 out of 328 games in his career; the Lakers need to get healthier and Beaubois wouldn't help in that aspect at all.

3. Sign D.J. Augustin

Augustin was just waived by the Toronto Raptors to make room for all of the players they acquired in the Rudy Gay deal and he was struggling with the Raptors, shooting 29% from the floor and only playing 8 minutes a game; he was worth a -0.2 Win Share before being waived. Augustin has shown solid ability prior to this year, being a career 37% 3 point shooter and owning a career .094 WS/48 with the Charlotte Bobcats and the Indiana Pacers. Augustin is solid on the defensive end, being worth a career 5.8 DWS and even better on the offensive end, accumulating a 11.5 OWS. The Lakers have been recently known to take on struggling role players and turn them into productive pieces of a productive whole, especially when it comes to bench players. Even if Augustin doesn't return to form, at the very least he would provide point guard depth, which at this time is very thin.

4. Do nothing and let Xavier Henry handle the back up point guard duties

Henry has been manning the back up point guard role since the December 1st game against the Portland Trailblazers to excellent results. Xavier is averaging 15 points, 1.5 assists and 2.2 rebounds, while being worth an outstanding +32 in +/- rating combined. The passing is leaving a bit more to be desired, but Henry is getting excellent dribble penetration and is scoring at a very high rate. We certainly don't know if this can keep up, as Henry has been a completely polarizing player this season; in the first two games of this four game stretch of playing point guard, Henry scored a career high 27 points only to come back and score 4 points the very next game. So while Henry has produced decent results, it still leaves the point guard position very thin, especially if somebody else where to go down with injury.

The best option appears to be signing D.J. Augustin, as he wouldn't cost any future picks and/or players; he can be had for cheap and he is certainly better than the alternative options (Beaubois, old friend Andrew Goudelock or Kendall Marshall), though he is worse than Lowry. I can understand if Mitch Kupchak doesn't feel the need to add another point guard with Henry lighting it up at the position, but I would like to see the Lakers take some precautions and bring another player in anyways. It can't hurt to help bolster the best bench in the league, and we can never have too much depth; don't forget last year's playoff roster that had Darius Morris and Goudelock start and play heavy minutes against the San Antonio Spurs.