The NBA season is under full swing and the Lakers have been the most
bipolar team in the league 16 games into the season. The Lakers have yet to
play with everyone healthy as point guards Steve Nash and Steve Blake have been
out with a leg fracture and an abdominal strain respectively. So far, Nash only
played in two games (both with Mike Brown and his Princeton Offense) and Blake
has only played in 7 games (running the Princeton in which he looked extremely
comfortable and a couple of games of Bernie Bickerstaff’s free flowing
offense).
But having Nash and Blake has had no effect on Pau Gasol’s game so far;
he has been, at times, atrocious and at other times, merely adequate. This team
wasn’t a fit for Gasol before Mike D’Antoni jumped on board, but now it seems
inevitable that either Gasol gets traded (Atlanta forward Josh Smith being the
player on my wish list if this were the case) or goes into the 6th
man role with Antawn Jamison starting alongside Dwight Howard to help stretch
the defense and give Howard more room to operate. Jamison started the season
extremely bad; at one point, Jamison was shooting 16% from beyond the arc, he
has since improved it to 30% with this 4 game stretch of good games (minus the
Indiana one, but everybody not named Kobe Bryant were missing shots left and
right). Before these 4 games, Jamison was 22.2% from deep and a measly 35.5%
total shooting, however he has been scorching hot in the past 4 games as he has
made 28 out of 48 for a percentage of 58.3% from the floor. He has averaged
17.8 points per game and 9.5 rebounds per game as it seems Jamison needed a
little bit of time to find his groove with this team.
Straight up, the numbers heavily favor Gasol for one big reason: Gasol
is averaging 35.2 minutes a game to Jamison’s 18.4:
|
Stat
|
Pau Gasol
|
Antawn Jamison
|
|
Points
Per Game
|
12.7
|
7.3
|
|
Rebounds Per
Game
|
8.9
|
4.6
|
|
Assists
Per Game
|
3.6
|
0.7
|
|
Shooting
Percentage
|
42.3%
|
47.3%
|
|
3
point shooting percentage
|
28.6%
|
30.4%
|
|
Free Throw
Percentage
|
75.9%
|
66.7%
|
At first glance, Gasol is looking better than Jamison however, the Per
36 minutes a game numbers favor Jamison in some key aspects:
|
Stats
|
Gasol
|
Jamison
|
|
Points
per 36 minutes
|
13.0
|
14.2
|
|
Rebounds per
36 minutes
|
9.1
|
9.1
|
|
Assists
per 36 minutes
|
3.7
|
1.3
|
|
Shooting
Percentage
|
42.3%
|
47.3%
|
|
3
point shooting percentage
|
28.6%
|
30.4
|
|
Free throw
percentage
|
75.9%
|
66.7
|
The advanced numbers don’t favor Gasol either as Jamison has been
outplaying for at least these past 4 games and has been steadily getting better
all season long:
|
Advanced Stat
|
Pau Gasol
|
Antawn Jamison
|
|
PER
|
15.2
|
15.8
|
|
True Shooting
Percentage
|
47.7%
|
56.7%
|
|
Effective
Field Goal Percentage
|
42.9%
|
54.8%
|
|
Total Rebound
Percentage
|
14.2%
|
14.1%
|
|
Turnover
Percentage
|
12.4%
|
10.5%
|
|
Win Shares per
48
|
.120
|
.155
|
So, for those who don’t know: PER is a measurement of how efficient a
player is when he is on the floor; 15 is league average. True shooting
percentage is field goal percentage from 2 point range, 3 point range and the
free throw line. Effective field goal percentage adjusts for the fact that a 3
point shot is worth more than a 2 point shot. Total rebound percentage and Turnover
percentage are pretty self explanatory and I decided to use Win Shares per 48
because Win Shares wouldn’t be fair to Jamison having played 269 less minutes
than Gasol (it’s similar to Baseball’s WAR statistic) while WS/48 tells us how
many games the player won in 48 minutes; .100 is league average. Gasol being
worse than Jamison in every stat except for rebound percentage, where they are
neck and neck, is troubling.
This isn’t Gasol having a bad stretch either; he was beginning to
struggle last season, but wasn’t as ineffective playing with the emerging
Andrew Bynum because Bynum doesn’t dominate the post like Howard does. Clearly,
Gasol isn’t a power forward who can share the low block and find his offense
elsewhere; he needs his back to the basket, something the team will not be
giving him because Howard is far superior in the post and commands double
teams, something Gasol hasn’t done since 2010. Gasol is a very smart player,
however, and his high post passing is among the best in the league (Josh Smith
a close second), but his jumper just doesn’t have the range D’Antoni requires
to stretch the floor. Here are the shooting percentages per ranges for each
player:
|
Range
|
Pau Gasol
|
Antawn Jamison
|
|
At
Rim
|
65.9%
|
88.9%
|
|
3-9 Feet
|
27.1%
|
45.5%
|
|
10-15
Feet
|
36.0%
|
100%
|
|
16-3 point
line
|
41.5%
|
50.0%
|
|
3
point
|
28.6%
|
30.4%
|
As expected for a 7 footer, Gasol is finishing at the rim right around
his career rate and his 16-3 point jump shot has been spot on to start the
year, but from any other range, Gasol’s numbers are alarmingly bad. He isn’t a
3 point shooter, so 28% isn’t all that bad, but what is up with his TURRIBLE
27% from 3-9 feet? That is absolutely unacceptable for a big. My theory is
Gasol is forcing up more shots as his offensive role with the team is becoming
smaller and smaller. Meanwhile, Jamison is burning the nets from all ranges (to
be fair, his 100% from the 10-15 range is on one spectacular shot against the Grizzlies). Jamison is not a player who requires touches in the post to create
his offense; in fact, Jamison is more comfortable playing off of the ball and
having his teammates help create a shot for him (something Howard has been
doing well so far). I’m very comfortable with Gasol coming off of the bench to
bolster the 2nd unit ala Manu Ginobili and getting his post touches,
however it’s clear that Gasol would not be playing at the end of games because
he can’t coexist with Howard and his clogging up the lane. For now, Gasol will
be starting alongside Howard, Bryant, Metta World Peace and Darius Morris
(soon to be Steve Nash hopefully) but his role will continue to diminish as
Jamison continues to find his groove within D’Antoni’s offense.
On to tonight’s game: the Lakers will face off against Howard’s former
team, the Orlando Magic (5-10). The Magic have been horrid on offense averaging
a measly 91.1 points per game on the year while allowing 96.4 per game.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ offense has been running on all cylinders averaging
100.6 per game. A lot of defense has been played during the D’Antoni era as LA
is only giving up 95.9 points per game.
Starting Lineups:
|
Position
|
Magic
|
Lakers
|
|
Point
Guard
|
Jameer Nelson
|
Darius Morris
|
|
Shooting Guard
|
Aaron Afflalo
|
Kobe Bryant
|
|
Small
Forward
|
Moe Harkless
|
Metta World
Peace
|
|
Power Forward
|
Glen Davis
|
Pau Gasol
|
|
Center
|
Nikola Vucevic
|
Dwight Howard
|
